More analysts have repeatedly pointed at $ 120,000 as Bitcoin’s
Price targets this year. The latest developments have strengthened the Bullish case, run by four key factors: the spot price, central bank policy, the energy market trend and technical setup.
Let’s look at them in detail.
BTC’s love affair with $ 100,000
Recently, a Crypto business said that the best marketing for any asset is its award that highlights an idea similar to the legendary trader George Soros’ theory of reflexivity. Soros explained that market perceptions and prices create a feedback -loop – higher prices attract more buyers, which in turn drives prices higher, often far beyond what basic elements suggest.
In this context, Bitcoin’s resilience, which is characterized by prices that have virtually over $ 100,000 through the Iran-Israel conflict and the US air striker of Iran, its strongest appeal.
The steadfastness indicates underlying strength that can soothe holders while attracting new buyers, which potentially burns the next leg higher in prices. In addition, short dips under $ 100,000 seen in the last 48 hours investors step in with bids, which revealed the “buy the dip mentality.”
“We see exchange outflow, so it is likely that people, regardless of being retail or institutions, buy dipped. Generally, when it comes to war and other external factors that interfere with things globally, there tends to be heavy short -lived dips that later rebounds depending on the difficulty and how the situation is communicated. Soenens, research analysis Coindesk in an E email Monday.
Meanwhile, data is being traced by glass node, weak hands began selling on June 10, while conviction buyers resort to negotiating hunting.
“Since June 10, BTC investors rose as loss sellers rose 29% (from $ 74k to $ 95.6k), showing growing pressure on weak hands. But conviction buyers also increased, suggesting that mood does not collapse. Some cut losses – others actively lower their cost base,” Glassnode said on X.
Trump seems to have found his pigeons
Liquidity relief, represented by bold rate cuts and other measures, typically stalled well for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Some bold officials are warming up to the idea of a potential rate cut in July, which contradicts President Jerome Powell’s data-dependent attitude.
“Trump seems to have found his pigeons,” Forexlive’s Chief Currency Analyst and Managing Editor Adam Button wrote Monday after the Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, a HAWK, said the central bank should reduce the rates in July.
Hawks are those who prefer tighter monetary policy and higher rates to temper inflation. The laps are decision makers who prefer lower rates to support growth.
Bowman said the impact of customs on inflation can take longer and could be less than originally expected, adding that she would support the lowering of interest rates next month if the inflation pressure is being included.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed a similar statement Friday and favored a betting on July.
“Now it may just be a coincidence that two former hawks, who are also Republicans, suddenly are pigeons, but it starts to look like a maga -taking over the fat. And if there is one thing [President Donald] Trump has been consistently about throughout his career (and that is perhaps only one Simple thing), it’s that he likes low interest rates, ”wrote Button.
Chairman Powell’s semi -annual monetary policy testimony to the US Congress will be Tuesday. Powell is likely to repeat Fed’s independence and data -dependent attitude, while potentially grilled by Republicans to keep the rates elevated.
Oil slides
Never before has the amount been so wrong on crude oil. On Sunday, consensus was that the US military strikes over Iran and Tehran’s potential closure of the Hormuz Strait would send oil prices that Himmelwards would send.
But on Monday, oil prices crashed on both sides of the Atlantic. The slip is good news for central banks, fearing that the second order effects of the oil price were seen late last week and those who expect cuts.
The effects on second order typically include increased transport costs, higher prices for goods that depend on oil -derived products and potential wages, all leading to a total increase in inflation.
“So much for fear of other order effects of oil that central bankers declare. Crude oil down 6.5% on the day and 15.41% yoy..it is deflation,” said James E. Thorne, Chief Market strategist at Wellington Atlus, on X.
Bullish Technical Setup
Momentum Indicators – Key Monitoring Averages – are again in line with Bullish.
The 100-day simple moving average (SMA) has just crossed over the 200-day SMA, weeks after the 50- and 200-day SMAs produced a bullish golden crossover.
The result is that the three widely traced averages are stacked one over the other in a classic upward-sloped bullish momentum formation. A similar configuration occurred last November and remained intact throughout the rally from $ 70,000 to $ 100,000.
