By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
(Bitcoin) has fallen to $90,000, with the broader market following suit. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indexes are down over 3.5% each on a 24-hour basis.
The weakness is in line with the gloomy sentiment in Nasdaq futures triggered by Oracle’s earnings miss, and follows a 25 bps Fed rate cut. Traders said hawkish forward guidance projecting just one rate cut in 2026 and the widening gap among policymakers overshadowed easing and pushed down risk assets.
Some analysts said that with the last major event completed and implied volatility falling, a major year-end recovery may not happen. Furthermore, flows into ETFs do not need to increase significantly for prices to rise.
Consider this: We haven’t had a single day above $500 million in net spot ETF inflows in the US since November 11, according to data source SoSoValue. Before that, the last one was on October 7. This is a significant slowdown compared to November-December 2024, when the ETFs collected so much at least one or two days a week.
The same can be said for the period April to October, also characterized by a recovery in BTC from $70,000 to over $126,000.
In short, flows are king and it remains to be seen whether they will meaningfully recover in the coming days to lift prices into the new year.
For now, here’s some positive news: According to BRN, large holders (10-10,000 BTC wallets) have added around 42,565 BTC since December 1st, a clear signal of smart money accumulation. Meanwhile, short-term holders and retail are still trimming positions.
In other important news, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has thrown his weight behind Fileverse, a decentralized, open-source encrypted document platform that aims to be a Web3-native alternative to tools like Google Docs.
In a note on X, he said the project has spent the last few months fixing a number of bugs and is now stable enough for secure document sharing, commenting and collaboration “without further issues.”
In traditional markets, the 10-year US Treasury yield recovered from a post-Fed low of 4.11% to 4.14%, again showing stickiness on the higher side. ING analysts have said it is more likely to rise sustainably than fall.
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- 11 December at 11: Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon, who pleaded guilty in August to US conspiracy and wire fraud charges, faces sentencing in New York by Judge Paul Engelmayer. The prosecutor wants up to 12 years, the defense wants five.
- 11 December at 15: Chia (XCH) AMA on Zoom.
- December 11: 21Shares Core XRP Trust (TOXR) Awaits Launch on Cboe BZX Exchange Following Cboe’s December 10 Listing Approval; no confirmed first trade date yet.
- Macro
- 11 December at 8.30am: US first jobless claims for week ended December 6. 220,000, US Continued jobless claims for week ended November 29. Est. 1950K.
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- The Arbitrum DAO votes on a one-year initiative funded by the existing DIP budget to financially reward delegates with over 200,000 ARBs who vote consistently and publish their reasoning. Voting ends December 11.
- December 11: Worldcoin hosts an “unwrapped” livestream.
- Unlocks
- December 11: to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply, worth $21.04 million.
- The token is launched
- December 11: Talus Network (US) to list on Kraken, Gate.io, BitMart, Bitget, KuCoin and others.
- December 11: Stabil (STABLE) to be listed on Bithumb.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 2.3% as of 16 ET Wednesday at $90,263.13 (24 hours: -2.24%)
- ETH is down 4.25% to $3,199.17 (24h: -3.71%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.25% to 2,871.54 (24 hours: -3.85%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bps to 2.8%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0026% (2.8021% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.2% to 98.59
- Gold futures are up 0.47% at $4,244.40
- Silver futures are up 2.53% at $62.58
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.90% at 50,148.82
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.04% at 25,530.51
- The FTSE is up 0.11% to 9,666.02
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.19% at 5,718.99
- The DJIA closed Wednesday up 1.05% at 48,057.75
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.67% at 6,886.68
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.33% at 23,654.16
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.79% at 31,490.85
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.2% at 3,129.59
- US 10-year Treasury is down 1.9 bps at 4.145%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.54% at 6,854.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.77% at 25,599.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.18% at 48,019.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.26% (0.27%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03539 (-2.04%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,066 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $38.52
- Total Fees: 2.69 BTC / $248,636
- CME Futures open interest: 126,970 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 21.4 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 6.05%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows BTC’s daily price swings in candlestick format since September.
- Wednesday’s Fed rate cut has not changed the technical picture as BTC remains stuck in a counter-trend rising channel within the broader downtrend.
- A clear breakout above the upper end of the countertrend channel would signal a bearish-to-bullish trend change.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Wednesday at $275.09 (-0.82%), -2% at $269.59 in premarket
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $88.41 (+2.78%), -2.3% at $86.38
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $29.52 (+0.24%), -2.1% at $28.90
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $46.13 (+0.04%), -2.28%% at $45.08
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.92 (-2.69%), -2.18% at $11.66
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.57 (+0.39%), -1.93% at $15.27
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.33 (-0.91%), -1.27% at $17.11
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $14.53 (-2.15%), -2.89% at $14.11
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $45.91 (-3.20%), -2.16% at $44.92
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $15.73 (+2.95%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $184.64 (-2.3%), -2.43% at $180.15
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $20.35 (-0.1%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $12.02 (+3.62%), -3.14% at $11.41
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.45 (-4.3%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.84 (+0.55%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $223.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.91 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.30M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $57.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $13.17 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.31 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
