Bitcoin is approx. 4% higher than a week ago – good news for the digital asset, but bad news for the economy.
The recent negative tone of the financial data points from last week raised the expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates on Wednesday, making more risky assets such as stocks and Bitcoin more attractive.
Let’s summarize the data that backs up this thesis.
The most important thing, the American CPI characters, came out on Thursday. The headline rate was slightly higher than expected, a character inflation may be sticky than expected.
Before that we had Tuesday’s audits of job data. The world’s largest economy created nearly 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ending March, the biggest downward revision in the country’s history.
The figures followed the much -watched monthly job report that was released the previous Friday. The United States added only 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, says Bureau of Labor Statistics. The first unemployed requirements rose 27,000 to 263,000 – the highest since October 2021.
Higher inflation and fewer jobs are not big for the US economy, so it’s not surprising that the word “stagflation” begins to crawl back in macroeconomic comment.
Based on the background – considered a risk of Wall Street – to grind higher, topped $ 116,000 on Friday and almost closed CME Futures Gap at 117,300 from August.
Not a surprise as dealers also offer the biggest risk assets: shares. Just look at the S&P 500 index that closed on a record for the other day on the hope of a betting.
So how should dealers think about BTC’s price diagram?
For this chart enthusiast, the price action remains constructive, where higher lownesses are formed from the September floor of $ 107,500. The 200-day moving average has risen to $ 102,083, while the short-lived proprietor realized award-up-egg used to support bull markets to record $ 109,668.
Bitcoin-bound stocks: a mixed bag
However, Bitcoin’s weekly positive price action did not help the strategy (Mstr)The largest of the Bitcoin Treasury companies whose shares were about flat during the week. Its rivals worked better: Mara Holdings (Mara) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%.
Strategy (Mstr) has underpinned Bitcoin years to date and continues to hover during his 200-day sliding average, currently $ 355. At Thursday’s end of $ 326, it will test an important long-term support level seen back in September 2024 and April 2025.
The company’s MNAV premium is compressed to less than 1.5x when accounting for unique convertible debt and preferred stock, or approx. 1.3x based solely on the equity value.
Preferred stock issuing remains muted, with only $ 17 million tapped over the strk and strf this week, which means most of the money is still flowing through common shares. According to the company, options are now listed and trade for all four eternal preferred shares, a development that can yield additional benefits on the yield.
Bullish catalysts for cryptoists?
CME’s FedWatch tool shows that dealers expect a 25-BASS-POINT-Rent Rent Cutting in September and has priced a total of three interest rates at the end of the year.
It is a character risk mood can tilt back against growth and crypto-associated shares, emphasized by the 10-year-old US Treasury, who briefly broke less than 4% this week.
Still the dollar index (Dxy) Continuing to hold multi -year support, a potential bending point worth looking at.
