Good morning, Asia. Here’s what makes news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories during the US HOURS and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see Coindesk’s Crypto Doybook Americas.
The polymarket and CME FedWatch are in line: Fed’s easing cycle begins tomorrow. Both have a 25 bps cut locked in for the next FOMC meeting, with odds that build a three-cut path through the end of the year.
The Polymark dealers provide more space for aggressive easing, while CME assigns stable probabilities on 25 bps steps. Either way, markets look 75 bps in cuts as the baseline of 2025.
The market’s beliefs about Fed Pivot are already emerging on the chain, with BTC trading for $ 116,762, an increase of 1.3% a day and 4.7% a week, while ETH is $ 4,502, an increase of 4.3% a week when the dealer price in the cuts.
Now some dealers are sitting on the sidelines to see how the market can react when Fed announces cuts.
In a recent report, cryptoquant data shows that the Bitcoin exchange flow has dropped to a 7-day average of only 25,000 BTC, the lowest in more than a year and a half; The level seen in mid -July when BTC first crossed $ 120,000. The average BTC deposing size is also halved to 0.57 BTC, proof that large holders are inactive rather than hurting to sell.
ETH sees the same pattern: Exchange inflow has fallen to a two-month low of 783,000 ETH, which is sharply down from 1.8 million in August. The average ETH Depositum has dropped to 30 ETH from 40-45 ETH earlier this summer, suggesting reduced activity on the sales side of whales.
If BTC and ETH are stored, StableCecoins in Cryptoquant float in its report. USDT deposits in exchanges rose to $ 379 million at the end of August, the highest this year, and remain increased to $ 200 million. The average daily USDT depositum has doubled since July, giving the exchange the “dry powder” needed to support a post-fed rally.
But currents are not uniform. Altcoins see a resurgence of exchange activity, with transaction deposits climbing to a 7-day total 55,000, up from a flat 20,000-30,000 interval earlier this year. That divergence signals possible earnings in names with higher beta even when the BTC and ETH supply remain tight.
“September brings a wave of token unlocks a total of $ 4.5 billion, a dynamic that can push liquidity and test market absorption,” Okx Singapore CEO Gracie Lin wrote in a note to Coindesk.
True possibilities are in addition to short -term volatility, argued Lin.
“Stableecoins are approaching $ 300 billion in supply, Token Unlocks puts market depth to the test, and major infrastructure upgrades such as Nasdaq’s movement against tokenized securities signal that crypto will be part of the global financial system, not an outlier,” she wrote.
The message is clear: Fed Pivot is almost priced in. What means
Market movement
BTC: BTC trades over $ 116,500 as dealers are optimistic in terms of potential US interest rates. Technical factors such as closing futures holes have added upward pressure. There is some caution before the fat meeting.
ETH: ETH trades with modest strength, supported by the overall momentum of crypto market (dominated by BTC), but with some resistance that investors weigh macro -risk and wait for clarity on politics from Fed.
Gold: Gold hits record highs, driven by the expectations that the American Federal Reserve will reduce the rates, a weakening of the US dollar and increased geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty. Demand for safe haven from investors is strong.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Stophav’s shares fell Wednesday morning, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.3%as investors track Wall Street loss and waited for a probable fed frequency decision.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 slipped 0.13% to 6,606.76 on Tuesday, when investors reserved profits in front of Fed’s rate decision after affecting a record high previously.
Other places in crypto
- Eric Trump defends UAE-Binance Agreement, says his father is ‘first guy who has not made money on the presidency’ (the block)
- President Trump claims the New York Times injured meme — coin in $ 15 billion trial (decrypt)
- Clarity Act is probably dead: Here’s what’s next for its subsequent legislation (Coindsk)
