This is a daily analysis of Coindesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
Dxy vs btc
Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered his first interest rate cut since December while signaling more relief in the coming months. Despite this Dovish drag, the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks Greenback’s value against larger currencies, ended the week with a dragonfly doji on the weekly chart -a classic bullish reversing signal that suggests an USD rally ahead.
Dragonfly Doji gets its name from his distinctive “T” form similar to the delicate wings of a dragonfly or the blade on a bamboo copter toy. This pattern is formed when the open, high and dense prices are almost identical, accompanied by a long lower shade that reflects a strong price drop that is quickly turned by buying pressure. DXY originally fell on the news of the Fed Rate Rate cut, which briefly dipped under the July Low of 96.37, only to jump back and end the week largely unchanged at 97.65, supported by resilience in US state dividends.
The appearance of Dragonfly Doji after a remarkable downward and to critical support, as in DXY’s case, suggests an impending bullish shift in the market’s trend.
Traditionally, dollar strength corresponds to weakness in dollar-denomined and wider risk assets, which sets an interesting scene for the coming week.
Bitcoin (BTC) mirrored this theme of the week, which ended September 21, forming an indecisive doji -stearin light by the critical resistance marked with the 2017 and 2021 trend line and 2021 Bull Market Peaks. Given that this doji appeared on such a significant long -term trendline, it leans more bearish, signaling hesitation among bulls to lead the price action and renewed sales pressure from the key barrier.
On the daily diagram, BTC teases a feature under the Ichimoku cloud, with the trend line drawn from September 1st, which involves potential downward risk.
The first support line is seen at $ 114,473, the 50-day simple sliding average, followed by September 1, which is near $ 107,300. The last week’s height of $ 118,000 needs to be overcome to weaken the bearish case.
Ether Range Breakdown
Ether (ETH) faces its own technical dilemma; It hovers under the lower end of the Contracting Triangle Pattern on the daily diagram, which suggests renewed the seller’s dominance and potential for deeper loss. The division has focused on August 20 of $ 4,062, followed by the psychological support of $ 4,000. The 24-hour height of $ 4,458 is the level to beat for bulls.
XRP’s MacD Flips Bearish
Meanwhile, XRP presents a frustrating image for bulls. Despite the recent debut of an XRP ETF in the US on Thursday, the MacD indicator has crossed Bearish on the weekly chart, indicating a renewed downward bias. Price indicates that the XRP slides back to the upper limit of a falling triangle on the daily chart. Although a preliminary breakout emerged last week, it failed to ignite a persistent rally, leaving traders cautious.
Focus on Fed Speak and PCE
This week, Fed -Chairman Jerome Powell and nine other officials are scheduled to speak, with markets that are likely to see the same for signals on the interest rail. While Fed reduced the rates last week and signaled more lightly ahead, Powell threw cold water over optimism by emphasizing a data -dependent attitude.
President Donald Trump appointment Stephen Miran will also talk about his independence as a decision -maker who has been dissented in favor of an excessive 50 basic point rate last week.
On Friday, the US Core PCE index, Fed’s favorite goal of inflation, is scheduled to be released. According to amber data, the data is expected to show that inflation increased 2.7% year to year, with a core hopp 2.9% in August, marking a light uptick from the previous month.
