Led large cryptocurrencies lower in Thursday’s Asian trade times as the odds of a US government shield hit record heights on the decentralized betting platform polymarket.
The price of YES-side shares for the bet “US Government Shutdown in 2025?” rose to 77%, the highest since the contract’s launch in January. Dealers essentially a 77% probability that the US Office of Personal Management will announce a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a shutdown before October 1 was 63%.
According to media reports, the White House is preparing for a large scale cuts in case of shutdown. On Wednesday, the Office of Management and Budget issued a memo that requested agencies to prepare plans for staff reduction and furloughs if no expenditure bill is adopted next week.
The government is reportedly expected to run out of money in late September. To prevent the resulting shutdown, Congress must either approve a short -term financing measure, known as a continued decision, or adopt 12 full -year financing bills. Since legislators do not finish the bills for the whole year before the deadline, a temporary financing stoppage is needed.
More importantly, in order to reach the threshold of 60 votes needed to pass on financing bills, support from both parties is usually necessary.
Btc, eth under pressure
Ether dropped over 3% in Asia, almost tested $ 4,000 for the first time 8 August with falls over 1% to less than $ 112,000. Other large tokens such as At and dropped by 2.6% to 3%. Solana’s sun seemed to be ready to break under $ 200.
Coindesk 20 index fell 2% at 3,940 points. Meanwhile, Futures was tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, flat to positive.
Although the exact cause of the cautious crypto market mood was not ready at the time of writing, growing concern about a potential shutdown of the government may have contributed to the risky mood of investors.
Furthermore, comments from San Francisco Fed -President Mary Daly repeated overnight from San Francisco, Mary Daly Daly, but refused to give a timeline, rather than emphasize data addiction, which may have damaged mood.
Fed reduced the rates by 25 base points on September 17, while suggesting two more efforts at the end of the year. Since then, decision makers, including President Jerome Powell, have signaled a cautious approach to future efforts.
Seven fat officials, including New York Fed’s Williams, are scheduled to speak Thursday. Meanwhile, dealers are awaiting Friday’s PCE data, Fed’s preferred target for inflation.
“If the inflation pressure appears contained, markets can interpret this as room for further fed cuts, giving liquidity setting wind in the 4th quarter. It could be the catalyst for BTC to try a long expected breakout,” the market insight team said at Singapore-based QCP Capital.
