This is an analysis post by Coindesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
As we approach the last quarter of 2025, the following key charts provide valuable insights to help crypto traders navigate the developing market landscape.
Bullish seasonal provision
Seasonal trends suggest a bullish Q4 view to both and the top two cryptocurrencies at market value.
Since 2013, Has delivered an average return of 85% in the last quarter, according to Coinglass data, making Q4 historically the strongest period for bulls.
November stands out as the most bullish month with an average win of 46%, followed by October, which typically sees a 21%increase.
Also has a tendency to work well in the last three months of the year, although its strongest historic returns have been in the first quarter since the beginning.
BTCS 50-week SMA support
Bitcoin’s price has fallen by 5% this week, in accordance with the Bearish technical signals and appears to extend losses to the end of August near $ 107,300. If bulls do not defend it, the focus will change to the 200-day simple moving average of $ 104,200.
The ongoing price drop, combined with Bitcoin’s historic pattern to peak approx. 16 to 18 months after a halving event may scare bulls.
However, such concerns may be too early as long as prices remain over the simple sliding average (SMA) of the 50-week. This moving average has consistently served as a support level and marked the end of corrective award extraction during the current bull driving, which began in early 2023.
Dealers should therefore carefully see the 50-week SMA, currently located around $ 98,900, as a key level for wider market direction.
XRP/BTC Compression
XRP, often called “US Government Coin” by companies like Arca, has risen 32% this year. However, despite this strong rally, the payments-focused cryptocurrency remains limited within a long-term sideways trade area against Bitcoin (XRP/BTC) showing limited relative strength.
The XRP/BTC par is limited within a narrow trade area since the beginning of 2021, resulting in over four years of low volatility compression.
The latest price action near the upper limit of this channel suggests that bulls are gradually gaining control. A breakout from such a prolonged consolidation could trigger a powerful rally in XRP relative to BTC as the accumulated energy from this clamp is released.
Now let’s approach charts that require caution.
Breakout in Defiance Daily Target 2x Short Mstr Etf (SMST)
The geared anti-strategy ETF (SMST), which seeks to deliver daily investment results that are -200%or minus 2x, the daily percentage change in the Bitcoin holder strategy (Mstr) share price flashes bullish signals.
ETF’s price rose up to a five-month height of $ 35.65 and formed what appears to be a reverse head-and-shoulder pattern, characterized by a prominent trough (head) flanked by two smaller, roughly equal trough (shoulders).
This pattern often signals a potential bullish reversing, which suggests that ETF may be ready for a significant upward feature.
In other words, it flashes a bearish signal for both BTC and strategy, which is the largest listed BTC owner with a coin stash of 639,835 BTC.
Dollar index’s double bottom
Last week, I discussed the dollar’s cut at footborn rate as a potential headwind to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The Dollar Index has since won land and established a double bottom of about 96.30. It is a sign that Bulls has successfully established the path with the least resistance on the higher side.
A continued step beyond 100.26, the high of the preliminary improvement between the double bottom bottoms around 96.30, would confirm the so -called double -bottom outbreak and open the door for a move to 104.00.
Watch out for the pattern error below 96.00 as it can lead to increased risk taking in the financial markets.
Nvda topping?
NVIDIA (NVDA), the world’s largest listed company by market value and a bell for risk assets, still flirting with the upper end of the expanded channel identified in June 2024 and November 2024 heights and low affected in August 2024 and April 2025.
The rally has stopped on the Upper Trendline since the end of July in a sign of bullish exhaustion. Should it fall from here, it could signal the beginning of a risk-off period in global markets, including cryptocurrencies.
