Just completed what is historically the biggest cryptocurrency’s third worst week of the year with a fall of 5%average. Week 38 effectively closes the third quarter, which is up by approx. 1%, as well as September, which has managed to keep flat.
While the figures are in line with the historical reputation of the period as one of the weakest seasons of the year, a few catalysts could have contributed to the sub -station.
On Friday, more than $ 17 billion expired in options, with the maximum pain price – the strike price, with holders losing most money and options that authors earn the most – sitting at $ 110,000, which served as a gravity center gravity center.
An important technical factor remains the short -term proprietor cost base of $ 110,775, reflecting the average acquisition price for chain for coins that moved in the last six months.
Bitcoin tested this level in August, and in bull markets it typically moves towards this line several times. This year it broke significantly below this level only once: During the tariff in April, when it dropped to as low as $ 74,500.
Zooming out is important to assess whether Bitcoin remains in a rende that is characterized at higher heights and higher low, to get an idea of ​​whether the rally is sustainable.
Analyst Caleb Franzen emphasizes that Bitcoin has slid during his 100-day exponential sliding average (EMA), with the 200-day EMA, which sat on $ 106,186. The previous significant low was about $ 107,252 on September 1st, and in order for the wider trend to remain intact, Bitcoin must keep over this level.
Macro background
The US economy grew at an annual pace of 3.8% in the second quarter, well over 3.3% -the estimate and the strongest performance since the second quarter of 2023. The original unemployed demands fell by 14,000 to 218,000 who came below expectations and mark the lowest level since mid -July. While data expenses came in line with the market’s expectation. The US Core PCE prize index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred target of the underlying inflation that excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in August 2025 from the previous month.
The yield of 10 -year -old US Treasury jumped off the 4% support and now trades near 4.2%. The Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hover around long -lasting support of 98. Meanwhile, the metals are leading the action, with silver of about $ 45 approaching a high high level of levels last seen in 1980 and 2011. The US shares are meanwhile just shy for their records.
Bitcoin remains the outlier of more than 10% at its peak.
Bitcoin-Exposed Shares
Bitcoin Treasury Companies continue to get serious compression with more to net active values ​​(MNAV). Strategy (Mstr) is hardly positive year to date. At one point it dipped under $ 300, a negative return for 2025.
The relationship between strategy and Blackrock Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is 4.8, the lowest since October 2024, showing how much the biggest Bitcoin Treasury Company has underpinned Bitcoin in the last 12 months.
The strategy’s enterprise mnav is currently 1.44 (from Friday). Business value Here, for all outstanding basic shares, total nominal debt and total nominal value of eternal preferred stock minus the company’s cash balance.
The silver lining for MSTR is that three of the four eternal preferred shares, STRK, STRC and STRF, are all sporting positive life returns, as performing chairman Michael Saylor seems to buy more BTC through these vehicles.
A growing problem for Mstr is the lack of volatility in Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency’s implied volatility – a measure of the market’s expectation of future price fluctuations – has fallen below 40, the lowest this year.
This matters because Saylor has often framed Mstr as a volatility game on Bitcoin. In comparison, MSTR’s implied volatility is 68. Its annual standard deviation for daily log returns in the past year was 89%, while over the past 30 days it has dropped to 49%.
For stocks, higher volatility often attracts speculators, generates trading opportunities and draws the investor attention, so the fall is likely to function as a headwind.
Meanwhile, the fifth largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, Metaplanet (3350), has 25,555 BTC and still has approx. $ 500 million left to deploy from its international offering. Despite this, its share price is fighting with 517 yen ($ 3.45), more than 70% during its highest time.
Metaplan’s mnav has fallen to 1.12, down sharply from 8.44 in June. Its market value now amounts to $ 3.94 billion compared to a Bitcoin NAV of $ 2.9 billion with an average BTC acquisition cost of $ 106,065.
