Bitcoin closed September with a win of 5.16%, the third best September on record since 2013, according to Coinglass Data.
The performance comes when dealers turn their attention to October, which has historically been the strongest month of the asset.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has an average of an average of 14.4% winnings in October with a median return of 10.8%. Out of 13 October during that time, 10 ended in the green and only three closed lower. This track Record makes October the most statistically favorable month for the asset with winnings that often cling in the second half.
Such a seasonal provision is a hallmark of the financial markets where markets tend to disappear in early May before an increase in November. This is based on the belief that stock markets are underpinning during the summer due to lower trading volumes, reduced institutional activity and historical return data.
Historically, US stock markets have shown weaker performance from May to October than from November to April, leading to the strategy becoming a seasonal thumb for some investors.
Bitcoin also shows recurring seasonal patterns, often affected by macro cycles, institutional currents and retail atmosphere. As such, earlier trading patterns show that the first week of October can be chopping or negative before stronger upside grabs later this month. In several years, Bitcoin placed double -digit waves after October 15, even when the early price action was muted.
The background this year is the same. Bitcoin’s mixed performance through 2025-Inclusive steps in the spring and uneven summer trade contrasts with resilience in recent weeks, adding weight to the idea that September’s strength may be a precursor to the late year’s momentum.
Still offering seasonal provision probabilities, not security. Macrocatalysts, from US inflation sprint to displacements in risk appetite, have historically shaped October’s events.
But with September’s performance ranking near the top and odds, which favors bulls in October, dealers will look closely to see if History Rhymes again.
