Bitcoin demand has been quietly expanded since July, as the scene for what could be another sentence rally for over $ 200,000
Apparently demand has grown at a rate of approx. 62,000 BTC per Month, according to Cryptoquant, a background similar to Q4 in 2020, 2021 and 2024, when prices staged sharp movements higher.
Sustained growth in demand has historically served as one of the backgrounds that price rallies could occur,
Much of this extension is driven by whales and ETFs. Large proprietor balances are rising at an annual pace of 331,000 BTC, a stronger trend than the 255,000 BTC registered in Q4 2024, the 238,000 BTC at the start of 4. quarter 2020, and a sharp contrast to the 197,000 BTC collection that marked the weaker market by 2021.
ETFs could add another layer as the products purchased 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024, a 71% jump in holdings and may be placed to increase the allocation to the end of the year.
In order for this requirement to translate into another breakout, Momentum on the price page is still critical. Valuation of the chain sets the most important threshold at the trader’s realized price of $ 116,000.
A crucial feature above this level would mark the transition back to the “Bull” phase of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator and could open a valuation band of $ 160,000 to $ 200,000 for 4th quarter.
The indicator compares Bitcoin’s current market price with several realized price measurements-the average cost basis for different groups of investors registered on the chain.
When the spot price climbs over these levels, the model interprets it as a shift into the “bull” phase, reflecting rising momentum and profits across the holding base. When the spot price falls below, it marks the “bear” phase, signaling of stress and unrealized losses.
Market conditions coming into October look strikingly similar to last year.
The Cryptoquants Bull Score Index has held between 40 and 50 in recent days, levels that historically mark the edge of bullish conditions. By 2024, the index broke over 50 at the start of 4. quarter, just before Bitcoin rose from about $ 70,000 to $ 100,000.
With Demand Metrics that are already strengthened, dealers carefully keep up after a repeat of this pattern in the coming months.
