By Francisco Rodrigues (all times one unless otherwise stated)
Bitcoin can enter a crucial phase as macro and crypto-specific forces converge.
With the US government’s shutdown and traditional market indicators such as employment reports delayed, dealers lean into alternative assets, especially Bitcoin and Gold. BTC rose to $ 120,000 after collecting 9% this week, while Gold rose 2.9% to touch $ 3,900.
The closure has over 90% of the SEC staff and left CFTC with a skeletal crew. Responding to the shutdown markets gathered as investors see the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 BPS later this month as an almost security over an unexpected fall in US private wages and a delay in other key financial data.
“Dealers have lacked immediate catalysts, the proof of muted commitment after the FOMC meeting, even when gold and shares have sent strong winnings. However, the wider trend remains higher as we move into a speed cutting cycle,” Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC-trading at Wintermute, told Coindesk.
Lower interest rates make risk assets like Cryptocurrencies more attractive, and it comes in a month when the mood is high considering historical performance.
“October has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, and early signs suggest that this year is possibly no exception.“Said Gadi Chait of Xapo Bank, in an E -Mail statement.” Far from being a speculative outlier, Bitcoin continues to show his ability to tread the odds and assert himself as a digital asset with residence. “
Data on the chain backs up. Apparently Bitcoin demand has grown by approx. 62,000 BTC per Month since July, according to Cryptoquant, which is largely driven by ETFs and whales. For context, ETF Holdings increased by 71% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
On top of that, the crypto-native market has continued to grow.
“Over the past month, the defense share of trading activity has climbed significantly and expanded both the market and our opportunity,” Dydx Lab’s President Eddie Zhang told Coindesk.
“A major driving force for this shift is the renewed energy and participation we look out of Asia. We believe Defi begins to fulfill its many years of promise, and the pace of the market’s adoption accelerates in response.”
Looking ahead, crypto markets expect other potential catalysts: ETF decisions for several altcoins, including Solana and XRP, that could be delayed over the shutdown, and Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade slowly moving closer. Stay aware!
What to look at
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see Coindesk’s Crypto week ahead.
- Crypto
- October 3: Sol Treasury Firm Brera Holdings begins shopping during the New Ticker SLMT on Nasdaq, reflecting its impending name change to Solmate.
- Macro
- October 3, 7 p.m. 9: S&P Global Brazil September PMI. Composite (Prev. 48.3), Services (Prev. 49.3).
- October 3, 9:30: S&P Global Canada Sept. PMI. Composite (prev. 48.4), services (prev. 48.6).
- October 3, 9:45 AM: S&P Global US Sept. PMI (Final). Composed Est. 53.6, Services est. 53.9.
- October 3, 7 p.m. 10: USA ISM Sept. Services PMI est. 51.7.
- October 3, 13:40: Fed Vice President Philip N. Jefferson gives a talk about “US Economic Outlook and Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework” in Philadelphia.
- Earnings (Estimates based on Factset -Data)
Token -events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see Coindesk’s Crypto week ahead.
- Management votes and calls
- Unlock
- October 3: Immutable (IMX) to lock 1.26% of its circulating supply worth $ 17.56 million.
- Token launches
- October 3: Evaa Protocol (Evaa) to be performed on Binance Alpha, Mexc and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see Coindesk’s Crypto week ahead.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- On Friday, the Crypto market rose with tokens including ETH, sun and XRP rises all more than 2%, while smaller altcoins such as ethfi and cake rose up to 25%.
- The relative strength comes when Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, hit $ 120,000 on Thursday as it aims at August’s record high over $ 124,000.
- Unlike previous forums over $ 120,000, this step has still been quite muted; With the price back in a tight interval as opposed to an increase in volatility.
- This is good for altcoins, which typically work well when Bitcoin consolidates, as it allows the capital to rotate from Bitcoin to more speculative efforts.
- Upside -change has not been friendly to a few tokens, especially which was treated a sharp fall of 43% due to a quick slack with leverage.
- Plasma’s XPL Token, who reported in Thursday’s Diary, continues to stem in the midst of speculation about whether market manufacturers are short -circuited on behalf of the foundation team, a claim that the XPL founders have denied.
Derivatives Location
- The BTC Futures Market remains strongly bullish with open interest held at all times over $ 32 billion. The three-month annual basis is also elevated and approaches 8%.
- However, there is a remarkable divergence in financing rates. Deribit’s rate is exceptionally high at 25%, while other exchanges such as ByBT show more neutral funding, suggesting a potential concentration of aggressive long positions in specific areas.
- The market for BTC Options shows a state of neutrality. The 24-hour put-call volume is still slightly call dominated at 52.25%, but this is a decrease from previous days, indicating a potential moderation of bullish conviction.
- At the same time, the 1-week 25 Delta crook is now essentially flat of 0.33%, signaling a balanced implicated volatility for both puts and calls.
- This combination of measurements suggests a market that settles in a more balanced and hesitant phase after a period of stronger bullish atmosphere.
- Coinglass data shows $ 380 million in 24 hours of liquidation with a 35-65 split between along and shorts. Binance -Liquidation Heatmap indicates $ 121,300 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in the event of a price increase.
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.3% from 1 p.m. 16 A Thursday to $ 120,378.11 (24 hours: +1.44%)
- ETH has fallen 0.4% of $ 4,476.43 (24 hours: +2.05%)
- Coindesk 20 has dropped 0.55% at 4,297.29 (24 hours: +1.59%)
- Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate is unchanged to 2.87%
- BTC financing rate is at 0.0023% (2,5185% annually) on Kucon
- DXY is unchanged at 97.76
- Gold Futures have risen 0.39% of $ 3,883.00
- Silver Futures have risen 1.87% of $ 47.24
- Nikkei 225 closed 1.85% at 45,769.50
- Hang bed closed 0.54% at 27,140.92
- FTSE has increased 0.63% at 9,486.91
- Euro stoxx 50 has increased 0.16% at 5,654.70
- Djia closed Thursday to 0.17% at 46,519.72
- S&P 500 closed 0.06% at 6,715.35
- Nasdaq Composite closed 0.39% at 22,844.05
- S&P/TSX Composite closed 0.18% at 30,160.59
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.42% at 2,893.79
- US 10-year-old Treasury has dropped 0.2 bps on 4,088%
- E-MINI S&P 500 FUTURES have increased 0.27% at 6,785.25
- E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES rose 0.28% at 25,180.75
- E-MINI DOW JONES Industrial Average Index has risen 0.28% at 46,937.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.79% (unchanged)
- Ether to Bitcoin Relationships: 0.03722 (unchanged)
- Hashrate (Seven-Day Sliding Average): 1,059 EH/S
- HashPrice (Spot): $ 50.69
- Total fees: 4.14 BTC / $ 495.121
- Cme futures open interest: 141,485 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 31.2 oz
- BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 8.81%
Technical analysis
- Ether has deviated back into the weekly interval after tapping the 100-day exponential sliding average (EMA) on the daily chart and now trades at $ 4,500 level.
- While the price is traded over all keyemas daily, it is currently within a Bearish Daily Order Block, an area of interest in a potential withdrawal.
- Bulls would like to see a break above this level followed by a successful gene test to target the range heights and eventually all times.
Crypto shares
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Thursday at $ 372.07 ( +7.48%), +0.36% to $ 373.42
- Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed to $ 149.72 (+16.04%), -0.68% to $ 148.70
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $ 36.52 ( +1.93%), +0.77% to $ 36.80
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed to $ 67.91 (+11.68%), -0.6% to $ 67.50
- Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 18.79 ( +0.97%), +0.85% to $ 18.95
- Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 19.25 ( +1.69%), +0.73% to $ 19.39
- Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 18.1 (+0.72%)
- Cleanspark (CLSK): Closed to $ 15.14 ( +3.77%), +1.52% to $ 15.37
- COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 46.49 ( +3.15%), +0.56% TO $ 46.75
- Exodus Movement (2.
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (Mstr): Closed to $ 352.33 (+4.11%), unchanged in the market
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 31.36 (+1.06%), -0.19% to $ 31.30
- Sharplink Gaming (SBet): Closed to $ 18.09 ( +4.15%), +1.05% to $ 18.28
- UPEXI (UPXI): CLOSED TO $ 7.29 ( +11.64%), +0.96% TO $ 7.36
- Lite strategy (LITS): Closed to $ 2.68 (+4.69%)
Etf is flowing
SPOT BTC ETFS
- Daily Net Tream: $ 627.2 million
- Cumulative net streams: 59.03 billion dollars
- Collected BTC holdings ~ 1.32 million
SPOT ETH ETFS
- Daily Net Tream: $ 307.1 million
- Cumulative net streams: $ 14.20 billion
- Collected Eth Holdings ~ 6.64 million
Source: Father’s page -Investors
While you were asleep
