This is a daily analysis of Coindesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
We probably all heard this phrase: “Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern.”
The old saying is perfectly useful on Bitcoin Market, where the crash on Friday marked the third time that Bulls could not maintain gains over the critical trendline drawn from 2017 and 2021 heights, raising the possibility of a deeper fall to $ 100,000 or lower.
This repeated inability to keep above this level highlights a sustained resistance, suggesting that the trend line is now an important battlefield that probably defines the boundaries of the bullish strength in this cycle. Coindesk highlighted the trend line resistance a month ago and noticed that Bulls had twice failed to maintain gains over it.
The long wicks in July, August and October candles signal bull fatigue over the trend line.
At the same time, the MacD histogram on the monthly chart self is still positive-lowers than it was during December-January rally, as BTC first broke over $ 100,000, indicating a weakening of upward momentum. MACD, a moving average -based indicator, is widely used to identify trend changes and trend strength.
The daily diagram below also paints a bearish image.
The sharp turn from the growing channel resistance combined with negative readings in both standard (12, 26, 9) and prolonged (50, 100, 9) MacD histograms signal that the path with least resistance is down.
The longer duration histogram that uses 50- and 100-day EMAs and a 9-day EMA to level the signal is significantly slower and less sensitive than the default setting, but better suited to filter out short-term market noise.
Overall, the monthly and daily charts suggest space for a fall to $ 100K levels that mark a test of the lower end of the expanding triangle. On the way lower, the 200-day simple sliding average of $ 107,000 could also offer support.
Bulls will need to construct a break over $ 121,800 to invalid the series of lower heights and overturn the bearish outlook. At the time of the press, BTC changed hands to $ 114,800 according to Coindesk data.
