Gold is up nearly 60% year-to-date, significantly outperforming bitcoin, which by comparison is up a paltry 13% – despite all the talk of a bull market.
Analysts say gold is not overpriced despite the epic rally, and traders on Kalshi are confident that 2025 will be the year the yellow metal outperforms BTC.
Still, data from Hyperliquid suggests crypto traders remain offside. Only 34% of positions are long, with only 35% of traders profitable, and a majority trapped in losing short positions as volatility whips markets as hyper-leveraged accounts increase the G-forces of the slide.
The average user’s daily PnL has dropped to just under $50K, indicating that most have been consistently on the wrong side of the market.
It is a telling snapshot of a mercantile society caught flat-footed. The recent wipeout of celebrity trader Machi Big Brother, whose account fell from $43 million in profit to over $13 million in losses, underscores how excessive bets on bitcoin’s rebound continue to backfire.
The combination of misplaced conviction and excessive leverage has turned crypto markets into a graveyard of mistimed trades rather than a reflection of genuine macro demand.
Glassnode’s latest market report reinforces this image of fragility.
The research firm describes the recent $19 billion deleveraging as one of the largest in bitcoin’s history, wiping out leverage and leaving the market in what it calls a “reset phase.”
Funding rates have fallen to 2022 FTX collapse levels, ETF inflows have turned negative, and long-term owners are splitting in strength. Glassnode warns that unless new demand emerges, bitcoin risks a deeper contraction below the $108,000 level.
In contrast, gold’s ascent has been driven by conviction rather than leverage. Geopolitical tension, cooling inflation and bets on rate cuts have all boosted its appeal as a safe haven in a world of macro uncertainty. Crypto’s speculative structure, dependent on ETF flows and derivatives leverage, has not been able to capture the same narrative tailwind.
So far, the data tells a clear story: traders may still want a bitcoin bull market, but the market they actually have looks a lot more like gold’s.
Market movement:
BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $108,287, falling due to renewed risk aversion, profit taking after recent rallies and macro uncertainty.
ETH: Ether is changing hands at $3891, seeing a sell-off in line with BTC as speculative demand weakens amid broader crypto pressure.
Gold: Gold is rising as investors seek a safe haven amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of US interest rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 is down 0.3% as major markets across Asia slide on rising concerns over geopolitical tensions.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- The Trump family has already made over $1 billion in crypto profits, says Eric Trump (Decrypt)
- SEC Commissioner Peirce Makes Case for Financial Privacy, Says Tokenization Is a ‘Huge Focus Now’ (The Block)
- BNY Mellon Remains ‘Agile’ on Stablecoin Plans, Focuses on Infrastructure (CoinDesk)
