Crypto traders have long colloquially referred to October as “Uptober,” a nod to the month’s tendency to deliver the biggest rallies for bitcoin. But this year’s record looks set to be the worst since 2015.
Bitcoin is down 5% month-to-date, trading near $107,000 in late Asian hours on Sunday, CoinGlass data shows. The historical average for October is around 19.8%, next to November’s 42%, which is the asset’s strongest month.
Macro risk has drowned out seasonality. The US-China tariff standoff, weak liquidity and a series of leveraged washouts have all combined to cap the upside.
Bitcoin’s drop below $107,000 last week triggered another $1.2 billion in liquidations, wiping out long positions built after September’s rally. Ethereum, Solana and BNB are each down 4%-7% on the week, while smaller tokens such as and has fallen by more than 20 per cent. The CoinDesk 20 index fell 8% in October.
October’s red streak is not unprecedented, but it is rare. Bitcoin has only closed the month lower twice in twelve years – 2014 and 2018, the latter ending with a 3% drop.
In 2020, however, bitcoin reversed from a loss in early October to a 27% gain by the end of the month, setting the following year’s all-time high. With two weeks to go, the calendar still leaves room for a turnaround.
“Uptober” it may not be, but it’s putting its name to the test this year.
