Bitcoin bottomed out at around $103,500 on Friday, marking an 18% correction from its all-time high of $126,200 reached on October 6. This is consistent with a standard bull market correction, where bitcoin typically retreats around 20%, a pattern that has defined the current cycle since it began in 2023.
The main source of sell-side pressure in the market is existing bitcoin holders, according to analyst Checkmate.
“The large amount of sell-side pressure from existing bitcoin holders is still not widely appreciated, but it has been the source of resistance. Not manipulation, not paper bitcoin, not suppression. Just good old-fashioned sellers,” Checkmate noted.
The first chart illustrates revived supply, which refers to the total amount of coins that return to circulation after being dormant for a certain amount of time. Resurgent supply recently hit its second-highest level of the cycle at $2.9 billion a day.
Notably, 47% of the selling pressure comes from coins held for six months to a year, suggesting that many investors who bought bitcoin in late 2024 and especially during the drop to around $76,000 in April following tariff-related market reactions are now taking profits.
The second chart highlights a similar trend through the average age of used coins, which has continued to rise throughout this cycle. At the start of the cycle in 2023, the average age of used coins was 26 days, a relatively young age, but it has now risen to 100 days. This indicates that older coins are increasingly being used as holders choose to realize gains.
Backing up this profit-taking narrative, Checkmate also shows that realized profits have risen to around $1.7 billion per day, one of the highest levels seen in this cycle. Meanwhile, realized losses have also risen to $430 million a day, the third highest level of the cycle, a high level of capitulation.
Overall, the data suggests that profit-taking remains the dominant market behavior, and this continued selling pressure is weighing on bitcoin’s price.
