By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin fell to around $107,000 after spending several days recovering from last week’s selloff that wiped out billions in leveraged positions. The downturn is now being interpreted by analysts as a market reset rather than a crash.
On-chain data from Glassnode suggests that the recent volatility flushed out excess leverage without harming the long-term market structure. Funding rates have fallen, futures rates have fallen and realized losses indicate that traders are reducing risk rather than abandoning positions altogether.
But for Samer Hasn, a senior market analyst at XS.com, bitcoin is “trapped in a bearish structure” as it forms successive lower highs and lower lows.
“For any meaningful reversal to take hold, the asset must recover and hold solidly above the $111,000 threshold, which is a level that will help rebuild the confidence required for trend stabilization,” Hasn wrote in an email. “Until then, market gains are likely to be viewed as temporary corrective moves within a broader downtrend.”
Still, some crypto market participants see this as a buying window. BitMine, led by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, committed $800 million to its already massive ether treasury, while Blockchain.com has held talks to go public via a US SPAC deal.
Similarly, Ripple-backed Evernorth Holdings signed a SPAC deal to list on the Nasdaq as it aims for over $1 billion to create the “largest public XRP treasury.”
Meanwhile, macro shifts support risk assets. Stocks are rising as trade tensions between the US and China ease and nervousness over credit risks for US regional banks eases. Gold is down more than 2% at $4,265 as capital returns to risk.
The technical setup appears to be what’s dragging down the broader crypto market, with the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index retreating 3.56% in the past 24 hours, with all members trading lower.
“The broader crypto market continues to experience a deep phase of deleveraging, with traders pulling back as volatility rises and confidence to sustain higher levels fades,” Hasn noted.
“Should this pattern continue, it could later serve as the basis for a more resilient bull rally as macro and liquidity conditions improve,” he wrote, echoing his colleague Linh Tran. Pay attention!
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- 21 Oct at 11:35 a.m. ET: Galaxy Digital (GLXY) hosts a Q3 2025 earnings AMA on X.
- Macro
- Oct. 21, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Sept. Inflation Rate. Headline YoY Est. 2.3%, MoM Est. -0.1%. Core y/y (previously 2.6%), monthly month (previously 0%).
- October 21: Federal Reserve Board hosts Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, DC Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- October 21: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), premarket.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- GnosisDAO votes on a proposal to fund ProbeLab with $105K to develop detailed performance and security metrics for the Gnosis Chain P2P network. Voting ends October 21.
- 1inch DAO votes to remove 5% Unicorn Power stake requirement for Fusion resolvers. Voting ends October 21.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- South Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb listed a number of tokens with lower market capitalization on Tuesday, leading to a series of explosive moves to the upside.
- Upbit especially added with won and dollar trading pairs. SynFutures is a decentralized derivatives exchange that hopes to compete with HyperLiquid and Aster.
- F climbed more than 50% after the IPO before giving back some of the gains. Trading volume increased by 669% to more than $200 million.
- Bithumb, meanwhile, listed ZORA and RECALL. The former rose by more than 10%, while RECALL moved in line with the broader market.
- The post-listing gains bucked the altcoin market trend on Tuesday, with several assets facing double-digit moves to the downside. The CoinDesk 80 Index fell 4.5% in the past 24 hours.
- CAKE and ETHFI both lost 10%, while ETH, BNB and SOL all fell 4%-5% as negative sentiment crept back into the market.
- Traders are now analyzing whether the market’s rally over the weekend formed a lower high, signaling a bearish trend and potential bear market reversal after new record highs less than a month ago.
Derivative positioning
- The Bitcoin futures market is showing a measured recovery, with open interest rising to $26.06 billion as traders gradually re-engage.
- The three-month annualized basis remains stable within the range of neutral to bullish 5%-6%. Significantly, funding rates have returned to mostly neutral or positive, indicating that the previous short-side conviction has been cleared. OKX is currently leading this shift with a high positive rate of 7.51%.
- The BTC options market is strongly bullish, supported by the rising expectation of future price fluctuations. The implied volatility structure is upward, signaling that the market expects volatility to increase over time.
- At the same time, the 25-delta bias is increasing across all timeframes and now exceeds 11.86%. This high positive bias confirms that traders are paying a large premium for upside exposure – call options – reflecting significant belief in a sustained rally despite near-neutral 24-hour put-call volume, which is 49%-51% in favor of puts.
- Coinglass data shows $320 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 76%-24% split between longs and shorts. BTC ($88 million), ETH ($85 million) and others ($33 million) led the way in fictitious liquidations.
- The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $112,300 as a core liquidation level to monitor in the event of a price rally.
Market movements
- BTC is down -2.98% from 16 ET Wednesday at $107,816.26 (24 hours: -2.62%)
- ETH is down 3.3% at $3,867.69 at $2,607.45 (24h: -3.84%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.6% to 3,566.33 (24 hours: -3.46%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps to 2.84%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0035% (3.7931% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.27% to 98.85
- Gold futures are down 1.91% at $4,276.00
- Silver futures are down 5.43% at $48.60
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.27% at 49,316.06
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.65% at 26,027.55
- The FTSE is up 0.21% to 9,423.22
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,678.39
- The DJIA closed Monday up 1.12% at 46,706.58
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.07% at 6,735.13
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.37% at 22,990.54
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.02% at 30,416.44
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.11% at 2,916.62
- US 10-year Treasury is down 1.6 bps at 3.972%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.12% at 6,765.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.11% at 25,276.25
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is down 0.18% to 46,827.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.6% (unchanged)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03587 (-0.36%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,133 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $46.49
- Total Fees: 2.93 BTC / $324,314
- CME Futures open interest: 144,835 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 25.6 oz
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 7.23%
Technical Analysis
- After rallying to the upper $111,000s yesterday, BTC bounced off the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) and is now trading around $107,900.
- For bulls to maintain momentum, a daily close above the 200-day EMA and a weekly close above $107,400 will help confirm the swing failure pattern established in early September.
- On the downside, the 50-week EMA, currently around $100,200, is the next major area of support on the higher timeframe.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Monday at $343.78 (+2.31%), -1.54% at $338.50 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $130.81 (+3.42%), -0.95% at $129.57
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $39.65 (+4.95%), +2.3% at $40.56
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $58.76 (+2.96%), -1.77% at $57.72
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $20.73 (+5.93%), -2.03% at $20.31
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $22.01 (+9.89%), -1.95% at $21.58
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.81 (-1%), +3.14% at $19.40
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $20.4 (+4.48%), -1.08% at $20.18
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $59.77 (+2.64%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.13 (+5.11%), -0.92% at $25.89
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $296.61 (+2.33%), -1.94% at $290.85
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23.65 (+2.03%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $14.79 (+3.14%), -2.16% at $14.47
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.72 (+5.93%), -2.97% at $5.55
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.98 (+5.32%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$40.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.47 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$145.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.47 billion
- Total ETH holding ~6.78 million
Source: Farside Investors
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