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George Springer took a place in Toronto Blue Jays history when he hit a three-run homer in the seventh inning that sent his team to a 4-3 victory over the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the AL Championship Series.
Springer’s drive to left field Monday night didn’t have quite the impact of Joe Carter’s homer that gave Toronto the World Series in 1993, or even Dave Winfield’s extra-inning double that helped the Blue Jays edge Atlanta for the 1992 title. But for a hit that took place outside of the World Series, Springer’s was very impactful.
A statistic called championship win probability added (cWPA) — published by Baseball Reference — measures how much a particular play increased or decreased a team’s chance of winning that year’s World Series. It’s based on when it occurred in the game — and when that play occurred in the overall context of the season.
Springer’s homer increased Toronto’s chance of winning the World Series by 19.73%. It ranks as one of the 10 greatest non-World Series games since 1903. Here’s the full list:
10. Chris Chambliss, New York Yankees (1976)
Chris Chambliss’ solo homer in the bottom of the ninth to give the New York Yankees a 7-6 victory over Kansas City in Game 5 of the 1976 ALCS. (cWPA of 18.77%)
The LCS was best-of-five before 1985, so this Chambliss homer was a walk-off in a winner-take-all game. It also touched off a full-on mob scene as fans invaded the field at Yankee Stadium. Baseball Reference’s cWPA data has Chambliss’ drive just ahead of a similar homer by Aaron Boone of the Yankees in Game 7 of the ALCS 27 years later.
9. Cecil Cooper, Milwaukee Brewers (1982)
Cecil Cooper’s two-run single in the seventh that put the Milwaukee Brewers up 4-3 against the California Angels in Game 5 of the 1982 ALCS. (19.66%)
That 4-3 lead held up and gave Milwaukee the pennant in a series that California led 2-0 at one point. The Angels also blew a 3-1 lead in the 1986 ALCS.
8. George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays (2025)
(Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
Springer’s three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh that gave Toronto a 4-3 lead over Seattle in Game 7 of the 2025 ALCS. (19.73%)
Like Cooper’s hit, Springer’s drive turned a deficit into a lead in the seventh inning of a winner-take-all LCS game. Give Springer extra points to erase a multirun deficit.
7. Manny Trillo, Philadelphia Phillies (1980)
Manny Trillo’s two-run triple with two outs in the top of the eighth gave the Philadelphia Phillies a 7–5 lead against the Houston Astros in Game 5 of the 1980 NLCS. (19.79%)
This two-run lead didn’t actually last. Houston tied the game, but the Phillies eventually won 8-7 in 10. So those two runs were huge.
6. Jack Clark, St. Louis Cardinals (1985)
Jack Clark’s three-run homer with two outs in the top of the ninth that gave St. Louis Cardinals a 7-5 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 of the 1985 NLCS. (19.83%)
The Dodgers hit Clark with first base open and he made them pay. This is the only game on this list that wasn’t in a winner-take-all game, but it sent the Cardinals to the World Series when they were one out in a Game 7.
5. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals (2006)
(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Yadier Molina’s two-run homer in the top of the ninth that gave St. Louis a 3-1 lead over the New York Mets in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. (20.71%)
After a spectacular catch by New York’s Endy Chavez at the wall in left field earlier in the game, Molina sent this ball well past it. The Cardinals held off a New York rally in the bottom of the inning to win the pennant.
4. Rick Monday, Los Angeles Dodgers (1981)
Rick Monday’s solo homer in the top of the ninth that gave the Dodgers a 2-1 lead over the Montreal Expos in Game 5 of the 1981 NLCS. (21.18%)
This homer – hit with two outs – ranks slightly ahead of Molina’s one-out drive. Both delivered the last score of the game.
3. Johnny Bench, Cincinnati Reds (1972)
(Photo by © Bettmann/CORBIS/Bettmann Archive)
Johnny Bench’s solo homer in the bottom of the ninth for the Cincinnati Reds that tied Game 5 of the 1972 NLCS against Pittsburgh at 3. (22.52%)
The Pirates were three out of the World Series, but they never made it. Bench started this opposite field, and Cincinnati would score the pennant-winning run on a wild pitch later that inning.
2. Bobby Thomson, New York Giants (1951)
Bobby Thomson’s three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth that gave the New York Giants a 5-4 victory over the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 3 of a tiebreaker series for the National League pennant in 1951. (35.56%)
Thomson’s “Shot Heard ‘Round The World” was technically not a postseason game because the tiebreaker playoffs have been considered part of the regular season. Still, this was a winner-take-all game for a World Series berth, and Thomson’s team went from being down two runs to winning in a legendary turnaround.
1. Francisco Cabrera, Atlanta Braves (1992)
Francisco Cabrera’s two-run single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth that gave the Atlanta Braves a 3-2 victory over Pittsburgh in Game 7 of the 1992 NLCS. (36.84%)
Cabrera remains one of baseball’s most unlikely heroes, having only 11 plate appearances during the 1992 regular season. He ranks just ahead of Thomson. Although Thomson’s hit erased a larger deficit, Cabrera’s came with two outs while Thomson’s came with only one.
Report from the Associated Press.
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