Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories in US hours and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Crypto markets have entered the midweek in a holding pattern.
Bitcoin is trading around $108,164, up slightly from Monday but still down 2% on the week, while Ether is changing hands near $3,815.
The rebound reflects what QCP Capital called a “narrow-range equilibrium” as traders await Friday’s CPI report, the only major U.S. economic data release not delayed by the shutdown.
In its note, QCP said CPI is the “single anchor” for political expectations and risk sentiment, noting that a softer 0.2% print could “re-anchor the soft-landing trade” and support Bitcoin’s upside bias as liquidity expectations improve. Until then, volatility is likely to remain high and declines will find support if the dollar and real interest rates weaken further.
Polymarket traders now assign a 77% probability of Washington and Beijing reaching a tariff deal by November 10, while the odds of Trump’s promised 100% tariffs on China taking effect have fallen to 16%.
In its memo, the QCP argues that Trump will again choose a symbolic deal over confrontation, making the upcoming meeting with Xi “pragmatic,” a view reinforced by his softer weekend remarks that “the United States wants to help China, not hurt it.”
The relative calm in both crypto and stocks reflects this relaxed narrative.
Last week’s $20 billion liquidation flush and Binance’s collateral mispricing have largely run their course, setting a cleaner slate for macro traders heading into the CPI event. Whether that calm holds will depend on whether Friday’s inflationary pressures keep the “soft landing” story alive or revive the volatility that markets are only just beginning to shake off.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $108,000, consolidating after a recent rally, with sellers limiting immediate breakout potential, while analysts at Standard Chartered say a drop below $100,000 could be a “last chance to buy” before the next leg higher.
ETH: Ethereum is trading around $3,800 on volume up 33% as traders accumulate ahead of US inflation data, although a $650 million transfer from the Ethereum Foundation triggered $700 million in profit-taking and long liquidations, leaving analysts divided between a potential breakout toward $5,000 or a slide toward 4.00 if support at $0 85.0.
Gold: Gold continues to see a record selloff, with futures down 0.3% to $4,097.80 an ounce after Tuesday’s 5.7% dive as investors took profit from its record run, although analysts said strong central bank purchases and rate cut expectations should keep bullion supported.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.5% after reports that the Trump administration may curb exports to China reignited trade tensions between the United States and China.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Crypto Is Finally Growing Up, Says VC Giant Andreessen Horowitz (Decrypt)
- Crypto Lost 1,000 Jobs to AI Since ChatGPT Launched — But Got Them Back From Other Sectors, Says a16z Report (Fortune)
- Tensions Rise as Senate Democrats, Crypto Chiefs Meet Over Comprehensive Digital Assets Bill (The Block)
