By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The crypto market is looking to regain upward traction with bitcoin trying to reach $110,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index is up over 1% in the last 24 hours, along with double-digit gains in a few select tokens such as HYPE, KHYPE and XMR.
Social media sentiment remains bullish, thanks to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 bps next week, continuing the so-called liquidity easing cycle. Still, it’s worth noting that the dollar index continues to exhibit bullish price action. A strengthening dollar may limit the upside in BTC.
Risk proxies such as iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) are also not supported. Both have recently penetrated key support levels. (Check the TA section). Meanwhile, key volume surveys point to underlying weakness in the bitcoin market.
Together, these factors validate the persistent put bias in BTC options listed on Deribit and Standard Chartered’s short-term bearish outlook.
The founders of the newsletter service LondonCryptoClub said that the recent bank funding stress and liquidity tightening “keeps BTC anchored and negatively affects the underlying risk dynamics.” Still, they added that the bull run is far from over, pointing to lower bond yields and economic slowdown risks as catalysts for aggressive Fed easing that could cause a “meltdown.”
In traditional markets, oil rose 4% on both sides of the Atlantic after the US imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war. Increased volatility in the oil market can cause risk aversion. Pay attention!
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- 23 Oct at 9: Binance Square hosts an AMA on “how early projects grow, build communities and navigate their Alpha journey.”
- Macro
- 23 Oct at 8:30 a.m.: Due to the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Department of Labor is not releasing its usual weekly initial and continuing reports on jobless claims.
- 23 Oct at 10: US Sept. Existing Home Sales Est. 4.1 million
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- SSV DAO votes to amend DIP-31 refocusing SSV 2.0 on Compose, a protocol that enables atomic cross-rollup transactions to reduce L2 fragmentation and promote SSV beyond distributed validation technology. Voting ends October 23.
- Unlocks
- October 23: Soon (SOON) to unlock 4.52% of its circulating supply, worth $12.4 million.
- The token is launched
- October 23: DFDV shareholders receive a warrant dividend.
- October 23: Venice (VVV) reduces its token supply inflation from 10 million. per year to 8 million per year.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Token Talk
By Francisco Rodrigues
- Jupiter’s native token, JUP, rose more than 3% in the last 24 hours after the decentralized exchange posted strong growth across key business metrics in the third quarter.
- The Solana-based project is also pushing to launch its own stablecoin and prediction market.
- Quarterly revenue rose 19.2% to $45.8 million, while trading volume, driven by both spot and perpetual products, rose 71% to $242.8 billion.
- Fees generated reached $121.5 million, an increase of nearly 48% over the second quarter. Despite the growth, JUP’s market value fell by 1.5% to 1.35 billion.
- Jupiter attributed the growth to the rollout of new products, including its Ultra v3 trading engine and a lending protocol that the team says is one of the fastest growing at Solana. Active wallets increased 5% to 8.4 million and total value locked (TVL) increased 41.7% to $3.4 billion.
- JUP outperformed the broader crypto market, which rose 1.6% based on the performance of the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.
Derivative positioning
- Open interest (OI) in HYPE futures rose 17% in 24 hours to hit a two-week high of 40.24 million HYPE. With an increase in price and positive fund rates, the increase indicates increasing demand for leveraged bullish exposure.
- OI in BTC and ETH is barely changed, a sign that traders are reluctant to place bets ahead of Friday’s US CPI release.
- Volmex’s BVIV, which measures the annual 30-day implied volatility in BTC, has pulled back slightly to 50%, but remains well above the September low of 35%. The elevated level reflects ongoing concerns arising from newfound risks such as automatic deleveraging and liquidity problems.
- Funding rates for major cryptocurrencies continue to hover near zero as a sign of balanced market conditions. XMR and BNB yields are slightly negative, indicating a bearish short bias.
- On Deribit, flows contained BTC put spreads. Overall, puts continue to trade at a premium to calls.
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.63% as of 16 ET Wednesday at $109,459.82 (24 hours: +1.74%)
- ETH is up 2.92% to $3,892.29 (24h: +2.05%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2.57% to 3,602.20 (24 hours: +1.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0038% (4.1303% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.15% to 99.04
- Gold futures are up 1.73% at $4,135.80
- Silver futures are up 2.22% at $48.74
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.35% at 48,641.61
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.72% at 25,967.98
- The FTSE is up 0.43% to 9,555.49
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.21% at 5,650.92
- The DJIA closed down 0.71% at 46,590.41 on Wednesday
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.53% at 6,699.40
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.93% at 22,740.40
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.32% at 29,982.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.49% at 2,894.55
- US 10-year Treasuries are up 4 bps at 3.993%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures were little changed at 6,738.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures were little changed at 25,057.25
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.24% at 46,672.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.79% (-0.12%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03557 (0.57%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,116 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $47.17
- Total fees: 2.89 BTC / $312,945
- CME Futures open interest: 142,385 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 26 oz
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 7.34%
Technical Analysis
- The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) recently broke out of a bullish trendline, signaling renewed seller dominance.
- The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLF) extended range is loosely bearish.
- These divisions suggest the potential for broad-based risk aversion ahead.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Wednesday at $320.33 (-5.4%), +0.94% to $323.33 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $124.79 (-3.9%), +1.69% at $126.90
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.34 (-12.88%), +1.23% at $37.80
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $52.63 (-8.1%), +1.48% at $53.41
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.15 (-4.58%), +1.36% at $19.41
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $18.99 (-8.13%), +1.21% at $19.22
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.8 (-7.44%), +2.36% at $18.22
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.86 (-10.18%), +2.43% at $17.27
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $51.32 (-8.37%), +2.81% at $52.76
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.28 (-5.67%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $280.81 (-6.99%), +2.3% at $287.28
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $22.53 (-4.17%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.44 (-6.28%), +2.16% at $13.73
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.75 (-6.68%), +3.79% at $4.93
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.86 (-4.62%), +6.99% at $1.99
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flows: -$101.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.84 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35m
Spot ETH ETFs:
- Daily net flows: -$18.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.59 billion
- Total ETH holding ~6.78 million
Source: Farside Investors
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