The crypto market was supported by a softer than expected CPI print with bitcoin rising back above $110,000 as ether going back towards $4,000.
Positive investor sentiment appears to be strongly aligned with bitcoin, with CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator hitting its lowest level in more than 90 days as bitcoin dominance continues to rise.
Derivative positioning
By Jacob Joseph
- Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex’s BVIV index, has fallen to 45% from 52% over two days, partially retracing the surge seen on October 10. This decline signals calming market anxiety along with a similar reset on Wall Street.
- Options data from Deribit shows that BTC’s seven-day volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned negative, a sign of renewed calm.
- Dealer gamma profile points to positive gamma build-up from $112K to $120K strikes. This means that traders trade against the market in this range, which stops price volatility.
- Broadly, BTC continues to trade at a premium to calls across all tenors, reflecting persistent fears of downside and overwriting of calls, particularly at the long end of the curve.
- ETH options are showing bullishness after the December expiration.
- Open interest (OI) in perpetual futures linked to most major tokens has increased in the past 24 hours. Leading the pack are PUMP futures, with an OI gain of over 14%. Strong capital inflows in non-serious tokens often precede market corrections.
- Funding rates for TRX, ZEC have turned slightly negative, indicating a bias for bearish short positions. In ZEC’s case, traders with long exposure in the spot market could hedge the same with short futures bets.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” index has fallen below 25/100 for the first time in the past 90 days as it enters “bitcoin season.”
- The drop reflects deteriorating sentiment across the altcoin market, with assets such as FET, 2Z, BONK and WIF all losing more than 50% of their value over the past three months.
- Bitcoin dominance has also crept up from 57% to 59% since September 13, a sign that investors are shunning speculative altcoin bets in favor of bitcoin, which has held stubbornly between $100,000 and $126,000 since July.
- Altcoins, meanwhile, fell victim to a liquidation cascade earlier this month when a sell-off led to excessive moves, wiping out order book liquidity in the process.
- While some have recovered from the selloff, many remain at critical levels of support creating a bearish market structure.
- This is despite a wave of digital asset treasury companies (DATs) investing in altcoins throughout 2025, where a lack of retail demand cannot sustain consistent momentum.
