By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin hovering around $113,000 after falling 1.4% in 24 hours, while the broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, fell 2%.
The declines come amid a rotation into stablecoins ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today. A rate cut of 25 basis points is a near certainty. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.9% chance of that happening, while traders at Polymarket put the odds at 98.1%.
Traders are also looking for signs that the Fed is set to slow its balance sheet drain, which would further ease financial conditions and be a potential boon for risk assets.
Trading activity has thinned out. Liquidity on centralized exchanges has fallen sharply, with order book depth at just 40% of pre-liquidation levels, according to Foresight Ventures, as traders rotate to stablecoins.
“Traders are rotating into USD stablecoins and concentrating liquidity in deep order books,” OKX Singapore CEO Gracie Lin told CoinDesk. According to Wintermute, stablecoin supply is now rising again for the first time since September, showing that “macro tailwinds are starting to translate into fresh inflows.”
Similarly, perpetual futures funding rates are now positive again for most major tokens, while open interest in BTC and ETH is “rebuilding at a measured pace.”
“While Uptober had a bit of a false start, macro tailwinds, cooling inflation, ‘stabilizing’ geopolitical tensions and a dovish FED set the stage for a supportive rest of the year, which historically (Q4) has been the strongest for bitcoin,” wrote Wintermute OTC desk strategist Jasper De Maere.
Positioning and macro tailwinds seem to suggest that a breakout is on the way, a stance that various analysts appear to be taking. Nevertheless, President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week could add to the uncertainty. Pay attention!
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- October 29: Grayscale’s Solana Trust converts to a spot ETF listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker GSOL.
- Macro
- 29 October at 9:45 am: Bank of Canada rate decision. Political interest rate (previously 2.5%). The press conference starts 45 minutes later; watch live.
- 29 October at 14: Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Fed Funds Rate Target Range Est. 3.75%-4%. Press conference starts 30 minutes later; watch live.
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Lisk DAO votes on a 4M LSK proposal to start a Lisk DAO fund that replaces grants with investments in top Lisk startups. Voting ends October 29.
- ZKsync DAO votes to allocate 33 million ZK (~$1.65m) to the ZKsync Association to maintain and improve management infrastructure through 2026. Voting ends on October 29th.
- ENS DAO votes to fund ENS Contract Naming Season, a six-month program led by Enscribe with 75K USDC and 10K ENS to promote smart contract naming, boost ENS adoption and improve Ethereum UX. Voting ends October 29.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The altcoin market began to show signs of strength on Wednesday, with traders rotating into higher-beta tokens ahead of potential political headlines.
- The TRUMP token, touted by President Donald Trump in January, led the move and rallied as optimism grew that the US and China were nearing a trade deal.
- also increased, supported by steady activity across Base-based DeFi protocols. The token added 7.2% as it hit its highest level since the start of the month.
- The market still showed a preference for bitcoin, with CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator remaining at 26/100.
- Altcoin gains were limited to memecoins and DeFi tokens, while major tokens traded in tight ranges.
- and hedera (HBAR) both gave back much of their gains on Wednesday, with the former down 6.9% in 24 hours, while hedera fell 4.5% despite a spot HBAR ETF going live on the NYSE on Tuesday.
Derivative positioning
- The BTC futures market is holding steady with open interest (OI) at $26.8 billion.
- However, the funding rates are very divergent: Deribit shows an aggressive rise to 24.64% y-o-y, signaling strong demand for long positions, while OKX fell to -3%, where shorts are paid.
- This mix of persistently high OI and polarized fund yields indicates heightened near-term market volatility and uncertainty, disrupting the previously consistent bullish sentiment.
- In the options market, bitcoin is showing a strong increase in bullish conviction. The implied volatility (IV) term structure shows a slight short-term backwardation (downward slope) before normalizing to long-term contango (upward slope).
- Short-term bullish sentiment has increased significantly, with the 250-delta bias at 10% for one-week expiration, meaning traders are paying a significant premium for call options. This is further validated by 24-hour put call volume, which is strongly in favor of calls (60%).
- Coinglass data shows $514 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 69-31 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($155 million), BTC ($114 million) and SOL ($57 million) led the way in fictitious liquidations.
- The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $114,350 as a core liquidation level to monitor in the event of a price rally.
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.23% as of 16 ET Tuesday at $113,094.99 (24 hours: -1.34%)
- ETH is up 0.53% to $4,003 (24h: -2.87%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.72% to 3,755.92 (24h: -2.03%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 4 bps to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0036% (3.9431% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.21% to 98.88
- Gold futures are up 1.35% at $4,036.70
- Silver futures are up 2.21% at $48.37
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.17% at 51,307.65
- The Hang Seng closed down 0.33% to 26,346.14
- The FTSE is up 0.47% to 9,742.64
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.27% to 5,719.98
- The DJIA closed Tuesday up 0.34% at 47,706.37
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.23% at 6,890.89
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.80% at 23,827.49
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.48% at 30,419.68
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.86% at 2,979.82
- The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.8 bps to 3.991%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.12% to 6,934.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.26% to 26,232.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.27% at 47,768.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.84% (-0.24%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03537 (0.31%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,137 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $48.69
- Total fees: 2.94 BTC / $335,834
- CME Futures open interest: 143,590 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 26.9 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 7.58%
Technical Analysis
- The total Altcoin Market Cap (excluding top 10 cryptocurrencies) to bitcoin ratio rests on critical long-term weekly support.
- The lack of a clear revival signal makes this a very precarious position because a breakdown below this level would imply significant further downside and market pain for the broader altcoin sector.
- With the next resistance 36% away and the next support -27% below, the current risk/reward is unfavorable for broad altcoin exposure versus bitcoin.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $355.22 (-1.72%), +0.28% at $356.20 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $136.11 (-5.01%), unchanged in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.29 (-8.04%), +0.4% at $37.44
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $54.01 (-4.08%), +0.54% at $54.30
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.88 (-3.48%), +0.58% at $18.99
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.56 (-6.28%), +1.37% at $21.85
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $20.09 (+1.11%), +1.54% at $20.40
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.15 (-5.2%), +1.51% at $19.44
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $59.48 (-2.24%), +0.79% at $59.95
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $25.01 (-3.88%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $284.64 (-3.72%), +0.31% at $285.51
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $27.22 (-13.42%), +2.87% at $28
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.74 (-3.98%), -1.38% at $13.55
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.63 (-6.28%), +1.73% at $4.71
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.93 (-7.66%), +1.04% at $1.95
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $202.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $62.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.36m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $246 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.75 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.75 million
Source: Farside Investors
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