Coinbase ( COIN ) is set to report third-quarter earnings Thursday after the market close, and Wall Street is largely expecting a hit to revenue.
According to FactSet, analysts estimate the crypto exchange will deliver earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14 — a quadrupling of $0.28 from Q3 last year — and revenue of $1.8 billion, up from $1.2 billion in the same period of 2024.
But the optimism is far from uniform. Analysts at JP Morgan, Barclays and Compass Point agreed on strength in blockchain rewards, USDC yields and trading activity, but split sharply on what that means for profitability and how much future value Coinbase could unlock from its Layer-2 blockchain, Base.
JP Morgan’s Kenneth Worthington is the most bullish of the bunch, upgrading Coinbase to “Overweight” and setting a $404 price target for December 2026. His thesis leans heavily on Coinbase’s exploration of a Base token. If launched, Worthington believes the token could have a market capitalization of $12 billion to $34 billion, with Coinbase retaining as much as 40%, potentially adding $14 to $42 per share. share in equity value.
He also sees the upside of Coinbase’s efforts to segment USDC customers through its subscription product, Coinbase One. By limiting stablecoin dividend rewards to paying members, Worthington estimates Coinbase could add up to $1 per share in earnings annually, depending on customer behavior.
Barclays’ Benjamin Budish, who has an Equal Weight rating on the company, shares the positive earnings outlook but takes a more tempered view. He sees adjusted EBITDA coming in 6% above consensus, driven by retail sales and stronger-than-expected USDC-related interest income.
He estimates total transaction revenue for the third quarter at $1.05 billion, topping Street forecasts and modeling $771 million in subscription and services revenue, above management’s guidance. However, he lowers his price target to $361 from $365, citing broader multiple compression in the market.
Compass Point’s Ed Engel is more skeptical. Although he acknowledges that third-quarter results are likely to come in modestly above expectations, he maintains a “Sell” rating. His concern centers on Coinbase’s shift toward lower-margin subscription revenue. Engel argues that USDC and staking payouts to users eat into profitability and that investors may be underestimating the impact. He also warns of slowing retail activity in the back half of the quarter and believes the acquisition of derivatives platform Deribit – while strategically interesting – faces increasing competition from regulated US venues such as the CBOE.
Notably, Engel is silent on the Base token potential that JP Morgan is touting, suggesting less conviction or visibility into the long-term play.
One area of agreement: USDC is becoming an increasingly important profit center. All three firms highlight how Coinbase benefits from its partnership with Circle ( CRCL ) and exposure to growing stablecoin balances. But again, analysts diverge on how much of that revenue Coinbase can keep as it adjusts reward structures and tries to funnel users into paid tiers.
As Coinbase pushes further into subscription services, on-chain infrastructure and derivatives, Thursday’s earnings report will serve as a test not only of its recent performance, but of which vision of the company’s future proves more accurate.
