Ether then slipped and bounced late as activity picked up and the trading range tightened, leaving nearby checkpoints in focus.
Context
Shares fell as the S&P 500 closed 0.99% at 6,822.34 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.57% at 23,581.14. The VIX rose to 17.22, up 1.77% on the day.
The macro tone also remained cautious after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at his October 29 FOMC press conference that a December rate cut was not assured.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 99.52 on Oct. 30 from 98.57 on Oct. 28 as talks between the US and China remained without a trade deal despite upbeat comments from President Donald Trump about the meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Ethereum’s core developers scheduled the Fusaka upgrade for December 3 following the network’s biweekly coordination call on October 30.
Technical analysis highlights
The following is based on CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model.
- Movement vs Market: Ether’s retreat from the $3,921 area tracked a broader crypto slide, with institutional flows turning negative at resistance.
- Path and range: The session traced a bearish structure, falling from $3,921.43 to $3,731.00 for a $230.31 range (about 5.9%).
- Decomposition site: The decisive push lower came when $3,880 gave way, along with top pressure at 443,415, about 103% above the 24-hour norm.
- Late rejection: From $3,731, ether rose 1.35% to $3,771.82 and broke back above $3,760, which had set a cap above previous attempts.
- Participation: Session volume ran 32% above the seven-day average.
What the patterns suggest
- Split, then test: Losing $3,880 confirms that sellers were active at that ceiling; regaining $3,760 is the first sign that buyers have been pushed back.
- Area behavior: With lower highs overhead and a higher low of $3,731, the pattern is flagging range-bound trading between $3,730 to $3,880 in the near term.
- Tone of jump: Recovery came on moderate flows, which looks like measured buying rather than a short squeeze.
Support and resistance chart
- Primary resistance: $3,840 to $3,880 (post-breakdown band).
- Secondary Resistance: $3,760, now recovered and a checkpoint nearby.
- Critical Support: $3,731 (session low).
- Greater confluence of support: $3,700 to $3,720.
Volume image
- Overall: +32% compared to the seven-day average.
- Peak: 443,415 on the $3,880 spread (about 103% above the 24-hour norm).
- On the rebound: Moderate flows indicate measured demand, not broad capitulation or squeeze.
Objectives and risk framing
- If buyers press: A move above $3,840 opens a run to $3,880, then $3,920.
- If sellers regain control: Failure at $3,760 leaves $3,700 exposed, with $3,650 as the next risk zone.
- Tactical Takeaway: With increased participation and the $3,730 to $3,880 band well defined, many traders are waiting for a clear break or decisive retracement before leaning harder either way.
Disclaimer: Portions of this article were generated with the help of AI tools and reviewed by our editorial staff to ensure accuracy and compliance with our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI policy.
