Coinbase’s ( COIN ) disappointing third-quarter earnings report drew a number of responses from Wall Street analysts, who highlighted stark differences in expectations for the crypto exchange’s long-term growth and ability to manage costs.
The company posted $1.05 billion in transaction income and $801 million in adjusted Ebitda, both ahead of consensus estimates. Analysts across the board agreed that derivatives trading, subscription services and the integration of Deribit helped drive the beat. From there, opinions divided.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish acknowledged Coinbase’s performance but flagged rising costs and declining margins heading into the fourth quarter. He cited an increase in operating expenses, driven by hiring and acquisitions such as fundraising platform Echo, as key challenges. Budish lowered its price target to $357 from $361, citing lower earnings estimates for 2026.
Clear Street’s Owen Lau was more optimistic. He raised his target to $415 from $405, arguing that Coinbase is well positioned to benefit from a growing role in cross-border B2B payments. Pointing to Coinbase’s partnerships with Citi and Shopify, Lau said stablecoin-based merchant payments could take market share from traditional avenues. He also flagged legislative progress, such as the possible passage of the Clarity Act in the US next year, as a potential “Altcoin Summer” catalyst.
Benchmark’s Mark Palmer echoed the optimism, maintaining a buy rating and $421 target. He framed the earnings as a return to form, with Coinbase demonstrating operating leverage as crypto markets heated up. He emphasized the importance of subscription revenue, which grew 14% quarter-on-quarter, and the company’s role in the broader institutional adoption of digital assets.
Citi also struck an upbeat tone, highlighting momentum across the exchange’s expanding business areas.
Analysts led by Peter Christiansen said they were encouraged by the company’s progress in signing new “onchain-as-a-service” partnerships, including with Samsung and several banks. The report added that the company’s “Everything Exchange” vision is starting to take shape, with options now trading live and futures volume set to increase.
Pending digital asset reforms could improve market access, and the bank noted they could also trigger “a pent-up wave of innovation”. The analysts reaffirmed their buy rating on the stock and their price target of $505.
However, Compass Point’s Ed Engel warned that cost growth outpacing revenue puts Coinbase in a vulnerable position if crypto markets cool. He lowered his 2026 Ebitda estimate and lowered his target to $266 from $277. Engel was skeptical that stablecoin and staking revenue growth would continue, especially if interest rates fall and retail crypto enthusiasm wanes.
Broker Bernstein noted that the results were below their street-high expectations, but said that the company is on “the path of a generational business building, and its fate is not simply driven by crypto price action.”
The rollout of the Base app to millions of users, along with the launch of a Base token, could mark a “Crypto Venmo” moment for Coinbase, the report said, signaling a major step toward mainstream adoption. The broker reiterated his outperform rating on the stock and $510 price target.
The biggest point of agreement was Coinbase’s growing presence in derivatives and stablecoin-related products. But even that came with caveats, as analysts noted falling commission rates and increasing competition from Circle Internet ( CRCL ), which is trying to pull more volume of its USDC stablecoin onto its own platform.
Ultimately, Coinbase’s short-term success is clear. But as crypto markets remain volatile and the company spends heavily on growth, the long-term outlook depends on whether new revenue streams like B2B payments and tokenized assets can scale quickly enough to justify the investment.
Price targets now range from $266 to $510, a gap that reflects both the opportunity Coinbase is chasing and the risks if it stumbles.
