Could Bitcoin Have a Bullish November?

Bitcoin began November under pressure after closing its worst October in a decade, falling below $105,000 earlier Tuesday as selling across majors deepened in the wake of last week’s Federal Reserve decision.

BTC is down 2.8% in the past 24 hours, while ether is down 6% to around $3,630. Solana led losses, falling 10% to below $160, extending its seven-day slide to more than 20%. BNB lost 6.4% and XRP fell 5%, while and Cardano’s ADA fell approx. 6% each.

The broad-based decline shaved another $100 billion off the total crypto market cap, which now hovers close to $3.6 trillion.

“The crypto market is trying to break through its local bottom,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Bitcoin’s retest of its 200-day moving average suggests fragile support, and a deeper retracement cannot be ruled out. Still, if the structure mirrors April’s pattern, buyers could soon find footing for another upward move.”

October’s 4.5% drop snapped Bitcoin’s long streak of positive “Uptober” finishes and underscored how much macro caution has returned. The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point cut last week was widely expected, but Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish tone dampened risk appetite after he suggested December’s cut is not guaranteed.

“Bitcoin’s first red October in seven years has certainly caught the eye, but I see it more as a healthy reset than a structural reversal,” said Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures. “The current pullback feels more like consolidation within a broader uptrend. Long-term owners are still accumulating and ETF flows remain steady.”

Fed data showed a $29.4 billion repo operation on Monday – the largest since 2020 – that injected short-term liquidity into the US banking system and helped stabilize broader risk sentiment. While not a return to quantitative easing, the move signaled that policymakers remain aware of liquidity stress.

Historically, November has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months of gains for nine of the past 12 years. Whether this seasonal trend holds may depend on how quickly traders regain conviction — and whether the Fed’s “soft pivot” narrative translates into renewed capital flows into crypto.

November is among the strongest months for bulls. (Coin glass)

The pullout reflects broader risk aversion across stocks and commodities as investors reassess the Fed’s cautious messages and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Meanwhile, futures tied to the S&P 500 traded lower on Tuesday as gold continued its retreat from record highs near $4,400, erasing part of last month’s haven-driven rally. Government interest rates, meanwhile, stabilized after a brief decline in the Fed’s liquidity injection.

Thin weekend order books and aggressive liquidation of leveraged longs have amplified every downward move, with more than $1.2 billion in liquidations recorded over the past 48 hours. Funding rates have normalized, but the positioning remains defensive.

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