While bitcoin is drop below $100,000 yesterday was of significant symbolic importance, it is the $95,000 level that could prove key, according to James Check, or Checkmate as he is known in the online world.
Nearly 57% of all dollars invested in bitcoin are now underwater at the $100,000 level, according to Check, which helps explain the current deep fear in the markets. But, Check said, losses right now stand at about $20 billion, or 3% of bitcoin’s market capitalization. Previous price declines in 2024 and earlier this year saw losses relative to market value at the 7%-8% level.
However, a drop to $95,000 brings losses closer to the 10% range, which, Check said, marks the point at which historic bear markets tend to kick in.
“Current market conditions are some of the most difficult to read in my experience,” Check continued. “We don’t want to see the price drop below $95,000, but I also expect the bulls to put up a hell of a fight to defend it.”
Speaking of deep fear, Coinglass’ Fear & Greed Index has fallen right into the “Extreme Fear” range at the 24 level. Extreme Fear readings have sometimes been associated with at least short-term bottoms in bitcoin. By comparison, the gauge fell as low as 21 during April’s tariff panic, when bitcoin fell to $75,000.
Read more: Galaxy research chief capitulates on bullish Bitcoin call after Tuesday’s plunge
