By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin continues to chop around $103,000, struggling to extend Wednesday’s rally from below $100,000. The CoinDesk 20 index is up 2% in 24 hours, along with 18% gains in ZEC, ICP and QNT.
The crypto market currently resembles a game of musical chairs: Liquidity shifts from one token to another, with no new inflows, in what Wintermute calls a “self-funded state.”
New inflows have slowed for months across all three channels through which capital enters the ecosystem: stablecoins, ETFs and digital assets (DATs), Wintermute said.
US-listed spot ETFs registered e.g. cumulative outflows of over $1.5 billion in less than two weeks, and demand from tax firms with digital assets has fallen sharply from peaks in the third quarter.
Interestingly, the absence of fiat inflows comes even as the M2 money supply in major countries continues to rise. This may be because the M2 increase, driven by fiscal spending, is aimed at stimulating a global investment cycle focused on technology, especially artificial intelligence, infrastructure and boosting domestic demand.
The key question is when will the liquidity start flowing in again? Perhaps soon, as the Fed “relaxes into a bubble” as Ray Dalio described in his X post, calling it inflationary. Elevated inflation can sustain demand for gold and gold-like assets such as bitcoin. Altcoins involved in artificial intelligence or those linked to recipients of fiscal stimulus may also do well, while others may struggle.
For now, traders should watch bitcoin interact with its 50-week simple moving average, a key support in the bull market since early 2023. A strong recovery here could signal new record highs.
In other news, crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) called on the US Treasury Department to ensure that its upcoming regulations for the GENUIS stablecoin act do not exceed statutory requirements. Decentralized exchange Lighter, which recently experienced a bot failure that pushed HYPE’s price near $100, adopted Chainlink as its oracle partner for real-world asset derivatives.
In traditional markets, the dollar index rally is approaching resistance at the August high of 100.25. A breakout could push crypto further. Goldman Sachs said the US Supreme Court appears increasingly likely to rule against the Trump administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, although any reductions are likely to apply to smaller trading partners rather than major ones like China. Pay attention!
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 6 November at 7: Bank of England interest rate decision. Est. 4%.
- 6 November at 14: Central Bank of Mexico interest rate decision. Est. 7.25%.
- November 6, 2:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller delivers a speech on “Central Banking and the Future of Payments.” Watch live
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- November 6: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.64.
- November 6: Iren (IREN), post-market, $0.15.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- November 6: OlympusDAO (OHM) hosts a community call.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- November 6: Folks Finance (FOLKS) to list on Binance, Kraken, MEXC, BingX and others.
- November 6: UnifAI (UAI) to be listed on Binance, Bitrue and others.
- November 6: must be listed on Binance.US.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.77% as of 16 ET Wednesday at $102,873.60 (24 hours: +0.73%)
- ETH is down 1.58% to $2,607.45 (24h: +1.89%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.33% to 3,261.54 (24 hours: +1.80%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps to 3.06%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0071% (7.7854% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.24% to 99.96
- Gold futures are up 0.59% at $4,016.60
- Silver futures are up 0.91% at $48.46
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.34% at 50,883.68
- The Hang Seng closed up 2.12% at 26,485.90
- The FTSE is down 0.28% to 9,749.73
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.03% to 5,670.66
- The DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.48% at 47,311.00
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.37% at 6,796.29
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.65% at 23,499.80
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.09% to 30,103.48
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.32% at 3,054.60
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 1.9 bps to 4.138%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,830.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,759.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is unchanged at 47,432.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 60.57% (unchanged)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03291 (-0.17%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,111 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $41.97
- Total Fees: 4.18 BTC / $429,396
- CME Futures open interest: 135,525 BTC
- BTC Priced in Gold: 24.5 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 6.91%
Technical Analysis
- BTC has penetrated the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April to October rally.
- The next support is seen at $94,237, which is the 61.8% retracement.
- On the higher side is $116,400 leb
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Wednesday at $319.30 (+3.9%), -0.23% at $318.58 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $113.03 (+1.6%), +0.38% at $113.46
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.44 (+0.87%), +1.72% at $31.98
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $48.32 (+5.62%), +0.37% at $48.50
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.13 (+3.07%), -0.41% at $17.06
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $18.97 (-1.58%), -0.32% at $18.91
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $21.8 (+0.28%), +0.32% at $21.87
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.58 (+2.22%), unchanged in pre-market
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $62.18 (+6.4%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.24 (+0.48%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $255 (+3.24%), -1.13% at $252.11
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.74 (+20%), -0.84% at $28.50
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $12.13 (+3.85%), -1.15% at $11.99
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.67 (+5%), +1.77% at $3.74
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.85 (+5.11%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$137 million
- Cumulative net flows: $60.26 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.34m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$118.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $13.91 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.61 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
- How Deep Are Bitcoin Traders Hedging After the Recent Price Drop Below $100,000? (CoinDesk): Option interest over $40 billion on Deribit clusters near $110,000 for November and December as demand increases in $80,000 puts, signaling deeper downside protection.
- Trump says he wants US to be ‘Bitcoin superpower’, cites competition from China (CoinDesk): In a speech in Miami, the US president said his order ended a “war on crypto”, mentioned that crypto helps the dollar and warned that China could win if Washington stumbles.
- Another piece of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy may fall into place (CoinDesk): With perennial favorite stock STRC now trading at par, Strategy may open a new avenue to acquire bitcoin through its at-the-market program.
- Milei defies calls to float Argentine peso (Financial Times): President Javier Milei pledged to continue market reforms, deepen ties with Donald Trump and keep the peso in an extended band through 2027 despite criticism it is inflating the exchange rate.
- Franklin Templeton Debuts Tokenized Money Market Fund in Hong Kong (CoinDesk): Franklin’s on-chain US treasury money market fund, which uses tokenized stocks and invests in short-term government bonds, is for professional investors, with a retail version in the works.
