Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories in US hours and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin hovered around $101,000 as Friday’s trading day began in Hong Kong, as chain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that market conditions have turned “extremely bearish.”
In its latest weekly report, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s drop below the 365-day moving average of $102,000 marked the loss of key technical and psychological support that previously defined the bottom of this bull cycle. The firm’s Bull Score Index – a composite measure of market strength – has fallen to zero for the first time since June 2022, a signal last seen before the previous bear market.
CryptoQuant added that traders’ realized price bands on the chain now point to potential downside targets near $72,000 if BTC doesn’t break above $100,000 soon.
It also identified the $91,000 region, based on Metcalfe’s network valuation model, as the next structural support level. “Failure to regain the 365-day moving average quickly could trigger a much larger correction,” the firm said.
The report follows weeks of weakening fundamentals, including declining approaches, reduced network activity and a flattening of key values on the chain. CryptoQuant analysts said the setup is now similar to the end of 2021, where a similar break below the long-term average confirmed the start of a prolonged decline.
Yet this view is not universal.
In a report from earlier this week titled “Defending $100K,” Glassnode wrote that the market remains “cautious, oversold, but not yet deeply capitulated,” with 71% of the supply still in surplus and unrealized losses contained to just 3.1% of market cap.
While long-term holders are selling and ETF outflows continue, Glassnode says the current phase is a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a bear market.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin fell as low as $100,420 overnight before reversing slightly to trade around $101,000 in Asian hours, extending a week-long slide that has wiped nearly 7% from its value.
ETH: Ether fell to an intraday low of $3,285 before falling back to $3,310 in early trade in Asia, down about 2% on the day and about 13% over the past week.
Gold: Gold bounced back toward the $4,000 level on Wednesday, rising as much as 1.5% to $3,989.53 an ounce as investors sought safety amid a global equity selloff, even as strong U.S. jobs data dampened expectations for further Fed rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened lower on Friday, following Wall Street’s technology-led sell-off, as AI stocks such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Palantir fell as investors awaited China’s trade data expected to show weaker exports and imports.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- What DraftKings And FanDuel Prediction Market Mean For Sports Betting Biz (Decrypt)
- Samourai Wallet Developer Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison for Unlicensed Money Transfer (CoinDesk)
- Central Bank of Ireland Fines Coinbase Europe $25 Million for Breach of Anti-Money Laundering Monitoring Obligations (The Block)
