According to Velo data, Mondays have averaged negative returns over the past month. However, this Monday started in the green as bitcoin climbed above $106,000, recapturing a key technical level, the 365-day moving average, which has served as a key long-term support throughout this cycle. The moving average is currently near $102,444.
However, a small gap has formed in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) around $104,170 from weekend trade. A CME gap occurs when bitcoin’s CME futures price opens higher or lower than where it closed the previous session, typically on the weekend when the CME markets are closed.
Historically, these gaps are often “filled” as price action returns to these levels, suggesting a near-term downside target, although the broader narrative has turned bullish amid expectations that the US government shutdown could end as early as this week.
As a result of bitcoin’s rally on Monday, crypto-related stocks jumped in pre-market trading. AI-linked crypto stocks are leading the advance.
Galaxy Digital (GLXY) is up 5% to $33, IREN (IREN) is up 7% to $66, and Cipher Mining (CIFR) is trading around $21, up 5%.
Meanwhile, the pure bitcoin treasury is also seeing strength. Strategy (MSTR) is up 3% premarket to $248, while Metaplanet (3350) closed Monday’s session 3% higher at 427 yen.
Elsewhere in the market, gold is up 2% at $4,079 and silver is nearing the $50 mark, up 3.3%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hover near the 100 benchmark, while US 10-year Treasury yields have fallen back above 4.1%.
