The record-long US government shutdown appears to be in its final stretch, with prediction markets signaling overwhelming confidence that a deal will clear Congress within days.
At Polymarket, traders are now assigning a 96% probability of the government reopening between November 12 and 15, which is in line with the expected House vote on the bipartisan Senate funding bill.
At Kalshi, contracts tied to the duration of the shutdown have had similar momentum, with traders pricing in an end within the next 72 hours as confidence rose following the Senate’s 60-40 vote to fund the government until January 30.
The jump in odds followed a decisive shift in Washington over the weekend.
Seven Senate Democrats broke ranks to join Republicans in promoting a bill that would reverse mass federal layoffs, restore back pay and food assistance and keep federal agencies running, but leave a politically explosive issue unresolved: the expiring subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which help lower monthly insurance premiums for millions.
December vote on grants
Even some of Trump’s allies are pulling back. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene accused party leaders of having “no plan” to address a potential doubling of premiums if the subsidies lapse, while a bloc of embattled House Republicans has urged Speaker Mike Johnson to act before the end of the year. Johnson has yet to commit to a vote on ACA relief, though he promised to hold “a deliberative process” after the government reopens.
A Senate vote in December on the subsidies is part of the shutdown agreement, but passage remains uncertain.
If the prediction markets are right, the government could reopen by Nov. 14, once the House passes the funding bill and Trump signs it. But as Kalshi and Polymarket traders lock in profits at the end of the shutdown, both parties are still gambling on a far more difficult question: Who is to blame.
Midterm betting
And if the results of next year’s midterm elections are to blame, the prediction markets are already keeping score.
At Polymarket, traders give Republicans a 44% chance of holding the Senate while losing the House, a split result that implies voters may punish both parties for Washington’s dysfunction.
The chances of a Democratic and a Republican sweep are independently at about 27% each, suggesting that neither party has been able to turn the shutdown into political capital.
