Bitcoin fell to a new six-month low on Monday, extending its multi-week retreat as crypto sentiment continued to deteriorate.
After a small recovery from overnight lows, BTC – in what has become a familiar pattern – resumed its decline in the US session, falling to $92,500, down 2.4% over the past 24 hours and nearly 13% over the past week. The biggest crypto has now erased all of its 2025 gains, falling 27% from its all-time high just over a month ago. Ether hovered over $3,000, 2% off in the past 24 hours and 15% over the past week.
The bearish sentiment spilled over into crypto-related stocks, with Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL), Gemini (GEMI) and Galaxy (GLXY) down around 7%. Treasury-linked digital asset companies continued their decline: Strategi ( MSTR ), the largest corporate bitcoin holder, fell 4% to its lowest since October 2024, while ether finance companies BitMine ( BMNR ), ETHZilla fell 8% and 14%, respectively. Solana-linked Upexi (UPXI) and Solana Company (HSDT) fell 10% and 7%, respectively.
Bitcoin miners tied to high-performance computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure fared better after weeks of drag. Hive Digital ( HIVE ) rose 10% on news that its HPC subsidiary entered into an AI cloud partnership with Dell Technologies. IREN (IREN) and Hut 8 (HUT) also posted modest gains.
Diminishing chance of Fed rate cut
Thanks to the government shutdown, there hasn’t been much in the way of official economic statistics for weeks, causing otherwise little-followed reports to grow in importance.
To wit, this morning’s New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey. That gauge unexpectedly jumped eight points to 18.7, well above analysts’ forecasts for a drop to 6. The upside surprise is likely to add to the growing case that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at its next meeting in December, rather than cutting, as markets previously expected.
Polymarket traders now assign 55% odds that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at the December meeting, while the CME FedWatch Tool places the probability of a pause slightly higher at around 60%.
CoinDesk Senior Analyst James Van Straten also pointed to a technical headwind. Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) opened at $93,840 on Sunday, leaving a gap to $91,970 from April still unfilled — a level that could attract near-term downside pressure as bitcoin often revisits such gaps, he noted.
Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts noted that the pace of realized losses is beginning to stabilize, suggesting that bitcoin could be nearing a local low for at least a rebound.
“Across multiple historical cycles, sustainable bottoms have formed only after short-term holders have capitulated to losses and not before,” the analysts said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The market appears to be approaching this threshold again, with near-term resilience depending on whether this capitulation phase can exhaust the remaining sell-side pressure.”
They added that this is now the third largest pullback since 2023 and the second largest since the US spot bitcoin ETFs launched, and argued that a local bottom could form “relatively soon.”
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