By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Risk-off sentiment deepened in Asian trade as the price of bitcoin dipped briefly below $90,000 for the first time in seven months before stabilizing near $91,000, down 4.5% over 24 hours.
While major alternative cryptocurrencies may suffer GDP and SOL also fell, they outperformed the largest cryptocurrency. Most of the top 100 coins are in red, apart from a handful of exceptions such as ASTER, HYPE, KYPE and ICP.
Some experts attribute BTC’s double-digit monthly slide mainly to fading expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December.
“The probability of a cut fell from around 70% to 42% in just about a week, compounded by the absence of other macro data points,” market maker Wintermute said. “[Fed Chair Jerome] Powell backing away from the near-certain December cut forced investors to examine the preferences of individual FOMC members, revealing that the cut was far from consensus. The response was immediate: US risk assets softened, and crypto, the most sentiment-sensitive risk asset, was hit the hardest.”
But there is a silver lining. Data from ING shows that open interest in bullish U.S. Treasury bond options has increased recently, a sign that traders are betting on higher prices and lower yields.
This stance suggests they expect weaker US economic data to revive hopes of faster rate cuts from the Fed. ING pointed out that with only 15 basis points factored in for a December cut, the room for front-end rates to hurt the dollar is significant. In other words, there is room for renewed dollar weakness.
For bitcoin bulls battered this month, these prospects could signal a turning point. Falling interest rates and a softer dollar have historically provided fertile ground for a crypto rebound. The key question remains: When will this dovish pricing in government bonds spill over into risk assets and help bitcoin and the broader crypto market regain balance?
For now, the US dollar index remains steady, poised to extend Monday’s bounce from 99.00 and potentially retest the August 1 swing high of 100.25, a level that served as resistance earlier this month. Its approach and interaction with this key level will be crucial to watch. A clear breakout above 100.25 could increase pressure on risk assets. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 18 Nov at 8:15 AM: ADP Employment Changes Weekly (Prev -11.25K).
- November 18: 10:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on “Bank Supervision.” Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- November 18: KULR Technology (KULR), post-market, N/A.
- November 18: Solana Company (HSDT), post-market, N/A.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- The render community (RENDER) is voting on whether to expand their compute program to include enterprise-grade GPUs (like the H100/H200). Voting closes on November 18.
- is hosting an analyst call on the latest developments in the project’s management and finances at 9:00 a.m
- is hosting an analyst call to cover the roadmap and fundamentals at 10.30 am
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- listings on Coinbase with TON/USD pairs.
- lists on OKX with ZEN/USDS pairs.
- Datagram Network (DGRAM) lists on Bitget with DGRAM/USDT pairs.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.48% as of 16 ET Monday at $91,437.01 (24 hours: -4.32%)
- ETH is up 1.85% to $3,061.45 (24h: -4.18%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.5% to 2,963.20 (24h: -3.93%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 8 bps to 2.91%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0084% (9.1761% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.60
- Gold futures are down 0.86% at $4,039.30
- Silver futures are down 0.96% at $50.22
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 3.22% at 48,702.98
- The Hang Seng closed down 1.72% to 25,930.03
- The FTSE is down 1.05% to 9,573.79
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.33% to 5,565.93
- The DJIA closed Monday down 1.18% at 46,590.24
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.92% at 6,672.41
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.84% at 22,708.07
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.83% at 30,076.21
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.78% at 3,087.59
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 2.3 bps to 4.11%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 6,672.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.32% at 24,798.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is down 0.32% to 46,514.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.96% (-0.8%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03351 (1.96%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,103 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $37.94
- Total Fees: 4.48 BTC / $420,601
- CME Futures open interest: 136,705 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 22.7 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 6.13%
Technical Analysis
- The VIX index, which tracks 30-day implied volatility in the S&P 500, is breaking out of an extended range, suggesting it may be time for a volatility bull on Wall Street.
- Rising volatility in stocks can spill over into crypto, further amplifying the already heightened volatility environment.
- Still, it remains unclear whether the eruption will continue or water down, as it did last month.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Monday at $263.95 (-7.06%), -0.37% at $262.97 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $76.59 (-6.47%), +0.25% at $76.78
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.04 (-4.94%), -1.36% at $24.70
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.75 (-4.5%), -0.14% at $36.70
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.51 (-4%), -0.52% at $11.45
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.88 (-0.5%), -0.5% at $13.81
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.79 (-0.94%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.61 (-3.19%), -0.66% at $10.54
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.92 (+0.94%), unchanged in pre-market
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $17.3 (-4.68%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $195.42 (-2.17%), -0.61% at $194.22
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $20.02 (-8.25%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.29 (-5.51%), -0.29% at $10.26
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.60 (-13.21%), -0.19% at $2.59
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.90 (-5.94%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$254.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $58.58 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$182.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.97 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.34 million
Source: Farside Investors
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