Bitcoin’s recent selloff is driven by mid-cycle holders rather than long-term whales, according to VanEck’s “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report.
The asset management firm said wallets whose coins last moved within the past five years account for most of the recent sales, while the oldest vintages have remained “remarkably stable” despite weakening sentiment. VanEck also noted that coins last moved more than five years ago continue to age in the cohort, adding approximately +278,000 BTC over the past two years, which the firm said signals long-term conviction remains intact.
The report lands as bitcoin trades near multi-month lows. BTC was recently around $86,696 at 21:15 UTC Thursday, down 3.2% over the past 24 hours and 31.2% below its Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko. Analysts have tied the broader decline to forced liquidations, long-term ownership splits and increased volatility across offshore derivatives markets.
“There have been several catalysts, but it appears that the main drivers are the long-term selling of ‘OGs’, an uncertain economic climate and a mass-draining event on October 10,” Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin told Euronews. He said older, large balance sheet holders “have been selling for weeks,” creating “a flood of supply hitting the market.”
Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, told Euronews that bitcoin’s volatility also reflects aggressive trading behavior on offshore platforms. She said professional trading firms implement order book strategies “labeled spoofing or laddering,” adding that such firms “only care about [the price] moving fast.”
VanEck said the 3-5 age group has dropped 32% over the past two years as those coins changed addresses, a trend the firm attributes to turnover among bike dealers rather than the capitulation of decades-long holders.
The report also highlighted a reset in speculative positioning: open interest in bitcoin perpetuals has fallen 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since October 9, pushing funding rates to levels similar to previous washed-out periods. Smaller wallets with 100-1,000 BTC have increased balances by 9% in six months and 23% in a year as the largest cohort of whales trimmed positions.
VanEck said the combination of long-term holder stability, cohort rotation and futures market capitulation leaves bitcoin in a “reset” mode that has historically preceded tactical rebounds.
