Investment bank Jefferies said the recent rise in gold prices cannot be explained by traditional drivers alone, pointing instead to Tether as a major new buyer.
Attestation data and on-chain activity show the stablecoin issuer has accumulated significant bullion in recent months, tightening supply and contributing to the sharp rally, the bank said in Thursday’s report.
The precious metal is up more than 50% this year and is currently trading around $4,080 a barrel. ounces.
Jefferies first flagged Tether’s interest after the company met with miners and royalty firms in Denver last fall, where investors told the bank that Tether aimed to buy about 100 tons this year. Public comments from CEO Paolo Ardoino about adding gold to reserves and a price increase of $1,000 per ounce strengthened the case.
Analysts led by Andrew Moss estimated that Tether held at least 116 tons of gold at the end of the third quarter, with 12 tons backing its XAUt token (worth about $1.57 billion) and about 104 tons backing USDT (worth about $13.67 billion), making it the world’s largest non-state central bank holder on a par with a smaller central bank holder. XAUt currently stands at a market cap of around $1.5 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.
The rate of accumulation is what stands out — about 26 tonnes in the third quarter alone, equivalent to about 2% of global demand, the analysts said. While not enough to overwhelm central bank flows, the purchase likely tightened short-term supply and added to bullish sentiment.
Tether is expected to continue accumulating as USDT grows, and gold remains around 7% of reserves, the report said. With Ardoino forecasting $15 billion in 2025 profits, the bank’s analysts calculated that even deploying half of that in bullion could add nearly 60 tons annually.
Tether’s planned GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin, USAT, will not require gold reserves, leaving its long-term impact on USDT and gold demand uncertain, the report noted.
The analysts also cited Tether’s growing investments across the gold ecosystem, including more than $300 million deployed in royalty and streaming companies this year. The bank sees these efforts as further evidence of a broader metals strategy. The recent hiring of two top HSBC metals traders suggests that Tether’s gold push is accelerating rather than slowing.
Read more: Gold token market rises to $3.9bn as CZ calls it a “Trust Me Bro” asset
