By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The new week does not start on the brightest note. Bitcoin already pulling back from the weekend, falling to $86,000 from around $88,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is also feeling the cold, falling to 2,758 points from the weekend’s high of 2,816.
BTC has been on a tough four-week losing streak, punctuated by institutional capitulation. What’s next? Sharp sell-offs like this usually shake investor confidence, which doesn’t bounce back overnight. That makes a quick rally back to $100,000 or more by the end of the year rather unlikely.
You can sense the mood from the analysts’ comments, which mostly avoid clear directional views.
“In the short term, a recovery is very likely, but if we fall again and lose the $80,000 level, the likelihood of facing a much tougher period becomes significantly higher,” CryptoQuant said in a post on X.
A setback cannot be ruled out as a December interest rate cut in the US is back on the table, with traders now assigning a 75% chance of a cut following dovish remarks by Federal Reserve officials late last week. Those odds could increase if this week’s U.S. data — producer price index, retail sales, GDP and PCE — signal cooling inflation and slower growth.
“For crypto, the macro delta is simple: easing print would reduce real yields and likely draw marginal buyers back in; sticky inflation or hawkish commentary would keep risk asset liquidity tight. Expect headline-driven volatility around these releases,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.
That said, here’s a quick reminder for those expecting Fed-driven booms like 2020-21. The game has changed. As financial strategist Russell Napier said, the post-Covid world is characterized by “fiscal dominance/state capitalism”, with governments, not central banks, leading the charge to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios.
In this new setup, governments leverage control over commercial banks and policy tools to direct liquidity into growth-driving economic activities that “blow away” debt. This makes assets that benefit from tax expense and appreciation value among the best investments right now.
This is a big shift from the pre-Covid, Fed dominance era, when new money first flowed to asset managers, sparking rallies in all corners of the financial markets: The classic Cantillon effect I first explained back in 2019!
Investors pinning their hopes solely on Fed stimulus for the markets may want to rethink their playbook. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Nov 24: Monad’s public mainnet launches with native token MON.
- November 24: Two new spot crypto ETFs – Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ETF (GDOG) and Grayscale XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) – are expected to go live on NYSE Arca.
- Macro
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlocks
- to unlock 4% of its circulating supply, worth $10.84 million.
- to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply, worth $6.25 million.
- The token is launched
- Monad (MON) to list on Kraken, Gate, Bitrue and Indoax.
- Sparkle (SSS) to list on Gate.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.95% as of 16 ET Friday at $86,003.98 (24 hours: -0.3%)
- ETH is up 1.14% to $2,799.37 (24h: -0.55%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2% to 2,753.16 (24h: +0.12%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 25 bps to 2.81%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0034% (3.7777% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is little changed at 100.09
- Gold futures are down 0.30% at $4,067.20
- Silver futures are down 0.22% at $49.81
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.40% at 48,625.88
- The Hang Seng closed up 1.97% to 25,716.50
- The FTSE is unchanged at 9,543.30
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,510.71
- The DJIA closed Friday up 1.08% at 46,245.41
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.98% at 6,602.99
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.88% at 22,273.08
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.85% at 30,160.65
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.24% at 3,036.63
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 1.3 bps to 4.05%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.25% to 6,636.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.47% to 24,419.25
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is unchanged at 46,311.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.08% (-0.31%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03252 (0.77%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,039 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $35.59
- Total fees: 2.32 BTC / $200,985
- CME Futures open interest: 131,785 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 21.2 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 5.77%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily fluctuations in Tether gold’s USDT-denominated price.
- The token, XAUT, has sparked a triangular consolidation over the past five weeks, marking a break in the broader bullish trend.
- The next move depends on the direction in which the triangular consolidation resolves. A bullish breakout would signal resumption of the broader rally, while a downside break would signal a bullish-to-bearish trend change.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN) closed Friday at $240.41, (+0.96%), +2.16% at $245.60 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL) closed at $71.33, (+6.53%), +0.71% at $71.84
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY) closed at $23.42, (-2.37%), +2.95% at $24.11
- MARA Holdings (MARA) closed at $10.07, (-1.76%), +1.39% at $10.21
- Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed at $12.71, (-0.67%), +2.2% at $12.99
- Core Scientific (CORZ) closed at $14.73, (-2.77%), +1.83% at $15
- CleanSpark (CLSK) closed at $9.73 (-2.84%), +5.14% at $10.23
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) closed at $38.04, (-1.91%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD) closed at $14.65, (+3.03%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $170.50 (-3.74%), -5.41% at $167.55, +1.07% at $172.32
- Semler Scientific (SMLR) closed at $19.03, (+3.36%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.52 (+2.37%), +1.58% at $9.67
- Upexi Inc (UPXI) closed at $2.52, (+2.43%), +3.17% at $2.60
- Lite Strategy (LITS) closed at $1.70 (+0.59%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $238.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.62 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.31M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $55.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.65 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.13 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
