Bitcoin traders are increasingly taking defensive positions and preparing for a potential price drop below $80,000 in the new year.
“Skew’s sharp move lower shows traders piling up puts, particularly in the December 26 expiration where open interest has concentrated on the $84K and $80K strikes,” Nick Forster, co-founder of Derive, said in a market note.
“This positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K BTC to start 2026,” he added.
At the time of writing, BTC was changing hands near $87,000, representing a 30% decline from the record high of over $126,000 hit on October 8, according to CoinDesk data.
Forster said the downtrend may not be over and market participants are pricing in a volatile December. “I don’t believe the bottom is in. Short-term volatility is now above long-term BTC volatility, signaling that the market is expecting big swings as we head into the new year,” Forster said.
