Wall Street broker Bernstein is sticking with his most aggressive Coinbase (COIN) call on the Street, an outperform rating and a $510 price target, even as a market pullback and renewed bitcoin volatility has rattled sentiment across crypto-linked stocks.
In a Monday note written by analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, the broker described the current setup as “fragile,” with choppy price action in crypto spilling over into public market proxies.
But the firm’s analysts argued that this downturn is unlike previous crypto busts because the underlying companies appear to be holding up and the froth is more narrowly concentrated. Bernstein pointed to speculative profits largely confined to “MSTR copycats,” while portraying larger, scaled players making more lasting changes in how they make money in the market.
For Coinbase, that shift is at the heart of the bullish thesis. The analysts said the exchange is working to reduce its reliance on spot trading by building an “alt exchange,” something closer to a full-stack financial platform than a single-product crypto venue.
The analysts noted that stablecoins have already become a major contributor to Coinbase’s revenue, but investors often continue to view ancillary businesses, such as staking and custody, as just another form of crypto-beta.
In Bernstein’s view, clearer US regulatory rules are the key catalyst that could redefine those lines, accelerate Coinbase’s expansion and narrow the advantage historically enjoyed by offshore rivals that listed tokens faster and captured fundraising-related fees.
The broker also said Coinbase is leaning further into token issuance through a launchpad-style approach, which could generate success-fee revenue while creating a flywheel: more issuances feeding more listings and ultimately higher trading activity. Bernstein cited Monad’s listing as evidence of demand for this model.
An important catalyst ahead
Another part of the bullish case is a near-term product catalyst: Coinbase’s planned Dec. 17 product showcase, which Bernstein expects will highlight areas that expand the company beyond spot trading, including tokenized stocks and prediction markets.
The firm also pointed to a growing push into derivatives, aided by Deribit, as a trend that could make Coinbase resemble broker-dealers like Robinhood ( HOOD ), with the two models converging as each adds more products traditionally associated with the other.
On the consumer side, the report flagged Coinbase’s Base app as a potential on-ramp that blends wallet functionality, payments and social features with broader token access via onchain integrations.
Taken together, the broker framed Coinbase’s strategy as a pivot from being primarily a spot-driven exchange to a broader distribution and service platform, which it believes can be enhanced through regulation, new issuances and an expansion of the product suite, though near-term sentiment remains hostage to crypto volatility.
Coinbase shares were 3.7% higher at the time of publication at $269.42, putting the potential upside to Bernstein’s price target at nearly 90%.
Read more: Investors should buy the dip in Coinbase and Circle, says William Blair
