Bitcoin’s decline over the past three months has revived a familiar line of commentary about an upcoming crypto winter. The price has fallen around 18% in the period, and some commentators have pointed to weakness in crypto stocks as evidence that the broader market is breaking down.
One of the steepest moves came from U.S. Bitcoin Corp., which plunged about 40% Tuesday thanks to unusually high volume. The decline briefly affected Hut 8, which owns a majority share in the company. Other Trump-linked digital assets have also fallen sharply, adding to a broader narrative that the sector is rolling into another extended downturn.
However, market structure data does not support this view.
According to a new report from Glassnode and Fasanara Digital, bitcoin has attracted more than $732 billion in net new capital since the 2022 cycle low.
The report notes that this single cycle drew in more inflows than all previous bitcoin cycles combined, pushing the realized cap to around $1.1T, while the spot price rose from $16,000 to around $126,000 at the peak. Realized cap is a measure of true invested capital and is typically one of the first indicators to contract during real winters. It doesn’t happen.
Volatility tells a similar story.
The report shows BTC’s one-year realized volatility falling from 84% to around 43%, a decline associated with deeper liquidity, greater ETF participation and more cash-margined derivatives.
Winters begin when volatility rises and liquidity evaporates, not when volatility is almost halved. What is historically true, this cycle is marked by increasing popularity of call overwriting strategies in BTC and IBIT options. These strategies have dampened volatility in this cycle, invalidating past spot-vol relationships.
The report argues that ETF activity is also at odds with the idea of a cycling peak. The report shows that spot ETFs have about 1.36 million. BTC, about 6.9% of the circulating supply, and has contributed about 5.2% of the net supply since launch. ETF flows tend to turn negative and stay negative in real winters, especially when long-term owners simultaneously reduce exposure. Neither condition is present today.
Sector-wide miners also diverge from winter patterns. The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) is up more than 35% in the same three-month period that BTC has fallen. In previous winters, miners were among the first to collapse as hashish prices worsened. The current divergence shows that miners’ weakness is not broad-based and that company-specific issues, such as the US Bitcoin selloff, are not representative of the sector.
The drawdown itself fits historical mid-cycle behavior rather than a full reversal, writes Glassnode.
Bitcoin showed similar declines in 2017, 2020 and 2023 during periods of deleveraging or macro tightening before continuing higher. The October 2025 event cited in the Glassnode and Fasanara report matches this pattern. Open interest fell sharply in hours, while spot liquidity absorbed billions of dollars in forced selling. Events like this tend to reset positioning, not end cycles.
Bitcoin also remains much closer to its annual high near $124,000 than its annual low around $76,000. In each recent winter, the market gravitated toward the bottom of the range and stayed there as realized losses accumulated and long-term holders changed their behavior. The current setup does not resemble that environment.
Short-term volatility in individual stocks can make for dramatic headlines, but the structural indicators that define market cycles tell a different story.
Glassnote points out that record realized cap, falling volatility and sustained ETF demand point to consolidation after a historic inflow cycle.
To conclude, the current market dynamics are not something you want to see at the start of a crypto winter.
