Bitcoin closely follows the difficulty model according to checkonchain.
This model estimates the total production costs of the network. The model treats mining problems as the distilled measure of mining price because it incorporates all major operational variables into a single figure. This provides an industry-wide estimate of the average cost to produce a bitcoin without requiring detailed assumptions about hardware, energy costs or logistics.
The model is currently close to $92,300, which roughly corresponds to the spot price of bitcoin. It briefly stumbled to the downside when bitcoin fell to around $80,000, but has since returned to the model’s valuation.
Price tends to remain in a bull market when trading above the pattern and often switches to a bear market regime when trading below it.
In April 2025, bitcoin fell to around $76,000 and bounced exactly at the then model value, acting as an important support level. Through most of 2025 it traded at a premium of approximately 50% to the model, while for most of 2024 the price hovered close to the model.
During the 2022 bear market, bitcoin traded at a whopping 50% discount to the model. Meanwhile, the multiple expanded far more in previous bull markets, with bitcoin’s price doubling the pattern at the 2021 peak and quintupling it in 2017.
As bitcoin matures as an asset, premiums anywhere near these levels appear to be a thing of the past.
Overall, the model suggests that bitcoin is currently priced close to the cost of production, which can be interpreted as a fair value zone. Metcalfe statutory valuations also place bitcoin close to fair value around $90,000, reinforcing this assessment.
