Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories in US hours and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Diary Americas.
A new CryptoQuant report suggests that the Strategy is quietly preparing for a multi-month BTC decline.
This thesis clashes with bets on prediction markets that still believe the company will behave as if it were 2021.
CryptoQuant highlights in its latest weekly report that Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury company is undergoing a structural turnaround from aggressive BTC accumulation to balance sheet protection, highlighted by a separate USD reserve and language acknowledging the possibility of hedging or even selling under stressed conditions.
Despite this shift, Polymarket odds for a bitcoin sale remain marginal in the first quarter of the year, while expectations for routine small purchases remain high.
In addition, Polymarket traders still view routine MSTR purchases as a high-probability event, although the volume of these purchases is shrinking.
The market only assigns a 40%-45% chance of a purchase above 1,000 BTC, and the CryptoQuant report suggests that these cosmetic top-ups are becoming the norm. With monthly accumulation more than 90% lower than last year, traders expect small purchases that preserve branding without affecting supply or regional liquidity.
The strategy’s average purchase size has fallen from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year, and with DAT inflows at their weakest since mid-June, bitcoin tax companies are no longer absorbing meaningful supply in the current market.
Together, slower Treasury purchases, weaker DAT inflows and a more defensive MSTR suggest a different supply landscape ahead for crypto in 2026.
Whether BTC can resume its upward trend will depend on new sources of demand stepping in to replace the corporate buildup that defined the last cycle.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin recovered from its morning drop to $91,800 and stabilized near $93,000, but its two-day 10% rally has stalled below resistance at the 2025 annual opening around $93,400.
ETH: Ether climbed back above $3,100 and hit a two-week high near $3,200 after gaining 3.5% on the day.
Gold: Gold fell slightly to just above $4,200 as traders remained cautious ahead of key US inflation data, although renewed Ukraine tensions and a softer dollar outlook could set the stage for a rebound.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific shares were mixed on Thursday, although Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix rose about 1.3% after positive US jobs data lifted Wall Street and boosted hopes for a Fed rate cut next week.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Bitcoin miners hunted after stealing $1 billion in electricity from Malaysia grid (Bloomberg)
- US Debt Growth Will Drive Crypto’s Gains, BlackRock Says in AI Report (CoinDesk)
