Dogecoin pushed through key resistance with its strongest volume in weeks, signaling retail-driven momentum even as whale activity fell to a multi-month low.
News background
- Dogecoin’s recent moves unfolded on the back of modest but steady ETF participation.
- The two recently launched US spot Dogecoin ETFs — Grayscale’s GDOG and Bitwise’s BWOW — recorded $177,250 in net inflows on Dec. 3, bringing cumulative inflows since launch to $2.85 million, according to SoSoValue data.
- While not explosive, the flows indicate early adoption among traditional investors as regulated DOGE products begin to establish a foothold. The broader memecoin market remained muted, but continued ETF demand provided a small but notable tailwind as DOGE attempted to recapture key technical levels.
Technical Analysis
- DOGE’s structure especially strengthened as price confirmed an ascending channel built above three higher lows of $0.1469, $0.1488 and $0.1512. This pattern reflects sustained accumulation, with volume expanding sharply on each upward leg and contracting during pullbacks—exact behavior traders look for when distinguishing true trend changes from noise.
- The break above $0.1505 marked the first resistance confirmation since late November. Tuesday’s volume expansion – triple the daily average – reinforced the legitimacy of the move.
- Despite declining whale involvement, the chart shows constructive momentum: upward-sloping support, increasing amplitude with each breakout attempt, and clean responses to dips throughout the day.
- Importantly, DOGE maintains structural integrity above the $0.1470 support band. This area now acts as the technical pivot point for continuation and defines the lower limit of the ascending channel.
- On a higher timeframe, the $0.138 region remains the key structural bottom aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and 200-week moving average – levels that continue to attract long-term buyers.
- DOGE opened with steady accumulation before breaking resistance at $0.1505. The rally accelerated around 14:00 GMT when volume peaked at 874.7 million tokens. The price briefly pulled back to $0.1513 before buyers resumed control, confirming the new support.
- Intraday action showed clean bid absorption at each higher low, while the upper channel boundary guided rallies towards the $0.1530 region. The session closed within the upper half of the day’s range, signaling that bulls maintained dominance.
• $0.1470 is now the key support level; holding it preserves the breakout structure
• Immediate upside target is $0.1530, with $0.1580-$0.1600 as the next resistance band
• Volume confirmation remains critical — a drop back below average can delay continuation
• Retail-driven rallies can accelerate quickly but also fade without institutional reinforcement
• Loss of $0.1470 risks a deeper pullback towards $0.1430 and in extreme cases, $0.138 macro support
What do techniques suggest for DOGE?
- The market structure is showing early signs of a momentum shift, backed by mixed but improving indicator signals. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a new “buy” signal on Dogecoin’s weekly chart using the TD Sequential indicator – a tool designed to identify trend exhaustion and potential turning points.
- Historically, TD Sequential “Buy” signals on DOGE have preceded sharp multi-week rallies, making the emergence of a new signal noteworthy as the coin tests the upper limit of its ascending channel.
- However, not all indicators agree. TradingView’s Bull Bear Power tool – which measures the balance of bullish and bearish pressure – flashed a sell signal, suggesting that sellers still maintain influence during intraday swings.
- In contrast, the MACD indicator, which tracks momentum through moving average convergence and divergence, turned bullish when the MACD line crossed above its signal line, typically interpreted as building upward momentum.
- Together, the mixed indicator profile implies that DOGE is in the early stages of a potential trend reversal, with bullish momentum emerging but not yet dominant.
- Traders are watching for confirmation through sustained closes above resistance and rising volume, both of which would validate the TD Sequential signal and negate short-term bearish readings.
