Veteran trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt has warned that bitcoins the signature growth parabola is broken, opening the door to a brutal slide potentially down to $25,000.
Brandt’s call hinges on exponential decay in bitcoin’s bull cycles. Historically, the cryptocurrency has rallied strongly for 12-18 months after halving and subsequently slipped into a bear market, characterized by a 70% to 80% pullback from record highs.
However, every bull cycle has seen diminishing returns. For example, after the first halving on November 28, 2012, BTC chalked up a 100-fold increase to $1,240 in December 2013. The 2016 halving saw a 74-fold increase, and the 2020 halving saw an eight-fold increase.
The latest post-halving cycle, which started after the quadrennial event in April 2024, saw prices double to a record high of $126,000 in October this year. Since then, prices have pulled back to just below $90,000, cutting through the parabolic curve that has marked massive price uptrends in each previous cycle.
“The current parabolic advance has been breached. 20% of ATH = $25,240,” said Brandt at X.
Brandt lays it out on a log-scale chart stretching back to 2010: four steep pink arcs, each tracing a cycle of manic vertical ascent. Parabolas don’t bend gently, they accelerate skyward, just like BTC’s history of rapid gains.
Meanwhile, crosses below that support line have marked the end of the bull run. The rollercoaster from the October Heights has done it by cutting under the fourth arch.
