Pain for crypto bulls continued on Monday as bitcoin remained markedly lower during US afternoon trade amid growing investor uncertainty about the macroeconomic outlook.
Just after the close of US stock trading, bitcoin was down 3% over the past 24 hours at $86,000. ether and solana all fell more than 5%. Most crypto stocks posted bigger losses, with Circle ( CRCL ), Galaxy Digital ( GLXY ) and Strategy ( MSTR ) down more than 8% and Coinbase ( COIN ) down 6.4% on Monday. Meanwhile, some stocks fared relatively better amid the carnage, including Bullish (BLSH), which saw a 2.5% loss, and eToro (ETOR), which was down 3.7%.
The fall in crypto comes as traditional markets are only marginally lower, with the Nasdaq closing down 0.6% and the S&P 500 down 0.15%. However, AI-linked stocks such as Broadcom and Oracle continue to gain from weak earnings results last week. This sentiment has punished bitcoin miners, many of whom have seen significant benefits from shifting their business plans to AI infrastructure. Hut 8 (HUT), CleanSpark (CLSK), Cipher Mining (CIFR), and IREN (IREN) all posted double-digit percentage declines on Monday.
Deciphering the decline
Crypto trading firm Wintermute pointed to signs of fatigue across risk assets, noting that both equities and digital tokens are “digesting macro uncertainty rather than entering a sustained risk-off phase.”
While bitcoin had traded between $88,000 and $92,000 for over two weeks, it has now fallen below $86,000, raising questions about whether further downside is likely. “Without evidence of forced selling or a sustained deterioration in liquidity, downside moves are more likely to remain orderly rather than disorderly,” Jasper De Maere, desk strategist at Wintermute, wrote in a Monday note.
A key factor weighing on markets is last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut. But forward guidance turned sharply cautious, De Maere said, with the Fed’s new projections showing just one rate cut in all of 2026, a slower pace than many investors had priced in. Markets continue to expect closer to three cuts next year, leaving a gap between investor positioning and central bank signaling.
This mismatch between inflation data and policy expectations is creating a choppy environment for risk assets, he added, especially given the Bank of Japan’s expected rate hike this week and its plans to liquidate more than $500 billion in ETF holdings, which has raised concerns about global liquidity and the yen-carry trade.
‘Selective dip buying’
Looking ahead, De Maere expects choppy, range-bound trading to continue into early 2026 with no clear trend emerging until more clarity is provided on growth, liquidity and policy. He noted that macro issues have dominated the markets for months, but there may be room for bottom-up narratives to re-emerge soon, such as developments in US crypto regulation.
He sees no signs of forced selling in crypto, which means any pullbacks could remain in order, barring a shock. “Until then, expect wider ranges, choppy price action and selective dip buying rather than a pure trend,” he wrote.
Analysts at Bitfinex somewhat agree, arguing that the nature of bitcoin’s market structure has fundamentally changed, and the famous “four-year cycle” is no longer the dominant driver of price action.
“With annual BTC issuance now below 1%, the impact of the halving has diminished,” Bitfinex analysts wrote in a Monday report. “Withdrawals since 2024 have been significantly smaller as structural inflows from ETFs, corporates and government-linked entities have absorbed multiples of annual mine supply.”
They argued that bitcoin is now entering a new phase: one dominated by long-term, patient capital and lower volatility, more akin to gold.
The analysts also noted a historical correlation between gold and bitcoin, pointing out that BTC often lags gold rallies by 100-150 trading days. As gold had rallied sharply in 2025, they said bitcoin may be poised to follow in the coming months after a consolidation phase.
Paul Howard, senior director at trading firm Wincent, also predicted a more constructive outlook for 2026, but he warned against expecting fireworks any time soon.
“The regulatory changes in 2025 combined with an easing of monetary policy set a good foundation for the ongoing evolution of the crypto asset class,” Howard said. “But I don’t expect BTC to print any new records this side of Easter.”
