Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories in US hours and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Diary Americas.
With only two weeks left in the year and many desks in Hong Kong working with skeleton staff after Friday’s Asia session as the Christmas break begins, crypto markets are shifting from momentum to scoring. One of the sharpest year-end verdicts comes from Polymarket, where traders now assign just a 2% chance that bitcoin ETFs will beat last year’s inflow record in 2025.
The bet rests on a simple math problem. Bitcoin ETFs Attracted $33.6B in net inflow during 2024. The year’s figures per December 15 US time is closer to $22.5 billion. according to SoSoValue, leaving a gap of about $11 billion. with only days of meaningful trading left.
Still, the past week has seen ETF inflows return even as prices softened and altcoins lagged, suggesting that while the $33.6B target may be out of reach, ETFs’ structural role in absorbing risk is still strengthening as the year winds down.
Glassnode data shows that US spot bitcoin ETF flows are returning to positive territory, even as prices retreated from the $94,000 where they traded yesterday and spot market conditions weakened, with net inflows returning to around $290 million for the week following earlier outflows.
At the same time, Glassnode writes that ETF trading volume fell, which suggests less speculative churn and more allocation-driven positioning. That pattern helps explain why bitcoin has outperformed the CoinDesk 20, a broad index in which ETFs increasingly act as a stabilizing conduit when risk comes from higher-beta assets rather than as a means solely of chasing upside.
The gap of $11 billion to last year’s record of $33.6 billion. reflects how the ETF story has changed, not that it has stalled.
Unlike 2024’s launch year, which was driven by pent-up demand and one-off allocations, 2025 has been shaped by rotation, fee migration and volatility-driven rebalancing.
The math may already be settled, but beating a benchmark before the end of the year is not that important. It’s about the use case: ETFs no longer amplify crypto prices like they did when they launched in 2024.
Instead, they increasingly act as a stabilizing layer in the market, absorbing sell orders during pullbacks rather than amplifying price swings. This is the sign of a mature market infrastructure.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin has spent the last week consolidating after failing near $94,000, drifting back towards the $87,000 to $88,000 range while outperforming the broader crypto market.
ETH: Ether has underperformed over the past week, sliding towards the $2,950 to $3,000 range as selling pressure in higher beta assets intensified and rotation favored bitcoin.
Gold: Gold rose above $4,300 after the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey unexpectedly slipped into decline in December, boosting safe-haven demand as US manufacturing volatility resurfaced.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower on Tuesday, following Wall Street’s decline as investors rotated out of US AI trading, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.14% and the Topix down 1.05%.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Senate Brings Crypto Market Structure Bill Next Year (CoinDesk)
- Bitcoin sees one-year low number of active addresses, prompting new concerns over demand for blockspace (The Block)
