By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin has gained between $86,000 and $88,000 over the past 24 hours, with Tuesday’s US jobs data not providing meaningful volatility. The price is close to a major technical level which, if broken, could cause more pain.
The number of BTC/USD longs (bullish bets) on Bitfinex continues to rise, reaching 72,184 at press time, the highest since February 2024. It may sound counterintuitive, but increasing longs have historically proven to be contrarian indicators that accompany longer-term downtrends.
Adding to the gloom, the 11 US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs blew $227 million on Tuesday after Monday’s $357.69 million outflow. So in two days the ETFs have lost over $584 million. That’s more than double last week’s net inflow of $286.60 million, according to SoSoValue. It is clear that the institutional appetite for BTC has weakened, leaving the market in a fragile state.
The lack of a bullish reaction to Tuesday’s rise in the U.S. jobless rate to the highest level since April 2021, a number that supports Fed interest rate cuts, also points to market exhaustion.
“For crypto, the lack of reaction is telling. Markets appear to be more focused on internal liquidity and positioning than macro releases,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN. “Until macro data meaningfully changes interest rate expectations or liquidity conditions, price action is likely to remain range-bound and reactive rather than directional.”
Speaking of positioning, options market data points to expectations for a wide range of trades between $85,000 and $100,000 in the near term.
In the broader crypto market, there are some winners like the Cardano-based one token, which has risen 9% in 24 hours. SKY and XMR have added 4% each, while the rest of the top 100 tokens are in the red. The CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indices have both fallen during the period.
Shares in crypto exchange HashKey fell 5% early Wednesday after their Hong Kong debut.
In traditional markets, the dollar index has recovered from a 2.5-month low to above 98.00, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding steady above 4.10%. The Chinese yuan remains hovering at two-month highs, giving policymakers room to stimulate the slowing economy. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- December 17: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller speech (“Economic Outlook”). Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- SSV Network votes to streamline committee operations (DIP-47) and limit the ETH/SSV fee ratio to 700 (DIP-49). Voting ends December 17.
- December 17: VeChain, Plume and Aleo to discuss growing institutional momentum in RWAfi.
- December 17: Venus Protocol, Solv Protocol, BounceBit, BNB Chain and Lista DAO Discuss BNB Chain’s New Chapter in 2026 and Beyond
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.51% as of 16 ET Tuesday at $86,436.95 (24 hours: +1.14%)
- ETH is down 0.89% to $2,924.45 (24h: -1.17%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.45% to 2,702.96 (24h: -0.88%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1bp to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0098% (10.7222% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.41% to 98.55
- Gold futures are up 0.24% at $4,342.80
- Silver futures are up 4.13% at $65.94
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.26% at 49,512.28
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.92% at 25,468.78
- The FTSE is up 1.68% to 9,847.03
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2% to 5,729.49
- The DJIA closed down 0.62% at 48,114.26 on Tuesday
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.24% at 6,800.26
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.23% at 23,111.46
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.7% at 31,263.93
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.46% at 3,100.62
- US 10-year Treasuries are up 2.1 bps at 4.17%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.34% to 6,879.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.38% to 25,476.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures rose 0.21% to 48,583.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.34% (-0.11%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03373 (0.03%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,068 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $36.97
- Total Fees: 2.72 BTC / $236,707
- CME Futures open interest: 122,645 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 20 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 5.82%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily changes in the dominance of USDT, the largest stablecoin, a measure of the token’s share of the overall crypto market.
- The dominance rate has crossed the three-year descending trend line, confirming a bullish breakout.
- This means that tether could gain more market share in the coming weeks, a scenario typically seen during bear markets.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $252.61 (+0.87%), unchanged in premarket
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $83 (+9.99%), -0.12% at $82.90
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.31 (-0.94%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $42.96 (+1.25%), -0.33% at $42.82
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.69 (-0.09%), -0.47% at $10.64
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.47 (-1.75%), -0.3% at $13.43
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.73 (-3.6%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.86 (-0.46%), unchanged in pre-market
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.36 (+1.13%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.43 (+6.42%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $167.50 (+3.34%), -0.87% at $166.05
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $17.40 (+8.55%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.71 (+2.1%), -0.21% at $9.69
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.05 (+0.49%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.52 (-0.65%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$277.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.25 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.31M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$224.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.66 billion
- Total ETH holding ~6.23 million
Source: Farside Investors
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