In today’s newsletter, Paul Veradittakit, managing partner at Pantera Capital, shares his predictions for 2026 on crypto, real-world asset tokenization and AI.
Programming Note: This will be our last newsletter in 2025 – we look forward to seeing you all in 2026! We are also selecting contributions from third parties for the coming year, so contact us if you are a global thought leader with research to share.
A heartfelt thank you to all the contributors from this year and all our subscribers for being a part of our newsletter. Looking ahead to 2026 — all signs point to it being an exciting year in the digital asset space!
-Sarah Morton
2026 Crypto Outlook: Real-World Assets, AI Security and the Next IPO Wave
In 2025, a US administration appointed a crypto czar, created a strategic bitcoin repository, formed a digital asset task force and elected a new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) who embraces innovation. In Congress, the GENIUS Act provided a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, facilitating a $100 billion increase in stablecoin demand.
Coinbase became the first crypto company added to the S&P 500, nine blockchain companies had an IPO, Robinhood launched tokenized shares, and Vanguard lifted its ban on crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Until 2026.
Real-world assets (RWA) are gaining momentum
Per December 15, 2025, the amount reached about 14% of Total Value Locked (TVL) to 16.6 billion USD out of a decentralized finance (DeFi TVL of 118 billion USD).
Predictions:
- The treasury and private credit could at least be doubled.
- Tokenized stocks and shares may grow even faster when the anticipated “Innovation Exemption” under the SEC’s “Project Crypto” debuts.
- A surprise sector (carbon credits, mineral rights or energy projects) will burn. This sector is likely to be characterized by fragmented liquidity, global distribution and a lack of standards, which blockchain-based markets will help address.
AI is revolutionizing on-chain security
AI security and blockchain development tools are getting scary good. Real-time fraud detection, 95% accurate Bitcoin tagging of transactions, and instant smart-contract troubleshooting are here to discover millions in blockchain vulnerabilities.
Forecast: Imagine larger shifts towards on-chain intelligence with deterministic, verifiable rules that take over smart contract-based governance. The application scans code in near real-time, detects logic errors and immediately exploits and provides instant debugging feedback. The next big unicorn will be an innovative onchain security company that wants to 100x the security game.
Prediction markets are acquisition targets
With $28 billion traded in the first 10 months of 2025, prediction markets are consolidating around institutional infrastructure. We hit an ATH the week of October 20 at $2.3 billion.
Forecast: A $1 billion-plus industry buyout, one that doesn’t involve Polymarket or Kalshi. Winning platforms will build liquidity rails under the hood with built-in market discovery intelligence that pinpoints where money is hiding and why. Forget shiny new buttons. It’s about effortlessly giving users superpowers: instant access to hidden pools, smarter routing and predictable order flow.
Sports-focused platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel have gone mainstream and partner with media for real-time odds distribution. Newer entries like NoVig, which focuses on sports, will expand their presence vertically and new startups will emerge in APAC as it is a region to watch.
AI becomes your personal crypto co-pilot
Consumer AI platform use will increase as systems mature, delivering hyper-personalized experiences that meet tailored expectations. Seamless integration makes advanced artificial intelligence feel effortless, shifting usage from clunky to instant.
Forecast: Platforms like Surf.ai will engage people from crypto-curious individuals to active traders in 2026 via intuitive advanced AI models, proprietary crypto datasets and multi-step workflow agents. I believe that sophisticated technology and accessible design position Surf as the best crypto research tool, delivering instant, on-chain supported market insights four times faster than generic options with other platforms of this type that are also emerging.
Banking titans gear up: G7-pegged stablecoin looms
A group of 10 major banks is in the early stages of exploring a consortium stablecoin issuance linked to G7 currencies. Financial institutions are determining whether an industry-wide stablecoin is likely to provide people and institutions with the benefits of digital currencies in compatible, risk-managed ways. Meanwhile, a group of ten European banks is investigating the issuance of a euro-pegged stablecoin.
Forecast: A consortium of major banks will release their own stablecoin (whether these pilot projects are realized in 2026 or another consortium does).
Privacy, payments, perpetuities: the institutional trio
Privacy technology is flourishing in institutional use with the combination of transparency and secrecy of Zama, Canton and other protocols, although retail use does not find traction or scalability. Stablecoins are at $310 billion today, more than doubling their market cap since 2023, expanding for 25 consecutive months. Perpetual swap contracts already make up ~78% of crypto derivatives volume, and the gap between perps and spot options continues to widen.
Forecast: For privacy reasons, the gap between institutional and retail will widen in 2026. Stablecoins will have a path to $2 trillion+ in the long term, hitting at least $500 billion next year, and the momentum for perpetuals will continue in 2026.
The biggest crypto IPO year ever
2025 already had 335 US IPOs, overall, up 55% from 2024; many of which were crypto-friendly, including nine blockchain IPOs. This includes crypto-natives like Circle Internet Group with a launch date of May 27, 2025 and crypto-inclusives like special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACS); Bitcoin Infrastructure Acquisition Corp, for example, launched on December 2, 2025.
Forecast: 2026 will be an even bigger year for public listings of digital assets. Coinbase says 76% of companies plan to add tokenized assets by 2026, with some looking at 5%+ of their entire portfolio. Morpho serves as an example protocol with its $8.6 billion TVL in November 2025.
The institutional macro view
As of December 15th, 17.867% of bitcoin holdings now rest in the hands of listed and private companies, ETFs and countries. By 2026, crypto will be integrated into mainstream platforms, upgrading financial rails and challenging current incumbents.
Forecast: 2026 is not going to be about hype or memes. It will be about consolidation, real compliance and movement of institutional money, driven by public market liquidity.
Read the entire article here
– Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner, Pantera Capital
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