Amid the recent bearish price action, the headline is Citigroup’s 12-month outlook for bitcoin at $143,000 — or about 62% up from the current $88,000 — will raise some eyebrows.
“We foresee increased adoption of digital assets, spurred by potential US digital asset legislation in the second quarter, with bitcoin likely to enter the new year around $80,000-$90,000 user activity values,” Citi analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer and Vinh Vo said in their joint report.
They said to watch the $70,000 level as key support, noting that it was roughly bitcoin’s price just before Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory.
Their base case 12 months out is a sharp rise to $143,000, driven, they said, by revived ETF demand and positive stock market forecasts. Regulatory catalysts – particularly the passage and signing of the Clarity Act (already passed in Parliament) – should drive further adoption and cash flows, they added.
But there is also a bear case, and the group maintains that the target is to make $78,500, or a decline of more than 10% from current levels. They believe a global recession would be the catalyst.
The bull case would be $189,000, or more than double from current levels, and that would be thanks to increased demand from end investors, they said.
