Lighter’s LIT token has yet to begin open trading, but the market has already drawn a sharp line around its valuation following Tuesday’s airdrop.
Traders are divided over whether the new governance token for the Ethereum-based Layer 2 decentralized exchange (DEX) deserves a fully diluted valuation closer to $2 billion or $3 billion.
Fully diluted valuation, or FDV, estimates a token’s total market value by multiplying its price by the maximum possible supply if all tokens were issued and circulated.
Premarket trading has placed LIT near $3.20, suggesting a FDV above $3 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, while prediction markets tell a more cautious story.
Recent low-liquidity launches like Monad, EigenLayer, and Movement have inflated headline valuations into the billions, though most tokens remain locked-in, leaving FDV to act less as a proxy for real demand and more as a forward-looking estimate that can be easily distorted without careful attention to liquidity and tokenomics.
On Polymarket, traders see roughly even odds on LIT to exceed a fully diluted $3 billion a day after launch, while expectations for $4 billion and $6 billion results have faded, with market data showing higher price targets collapsing after October’s crash.
In comparison, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token debuted at around $4.2 billion FDV last November.
Dune data shows that Lighter has averaged about $2.7 billion in daily perpetuals volume over the past week, placing it behind only Hyperliquid and Aster.
