Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif talks to US President Donald Trump at the White House as Field Marshal Asim Munir looks on. PHOTO: EXPRESS
ISLAMABAD:
A year after US President Donald Trump returned to the White House, Pakistan appears to be among the silent beneficiaries of a significant shift in Washington’s strategic thinking.
The recently released 2026 United States National Defense Strategy (NDS) signals a departure from Washington’s decades-old stance of viewing China as the primary global threat, a recalibration that Pakistani officials and analysts say eases Islamabad’s foreign policy challenges.
When Trump took office for his second term, there was visible unrest in Pakistan. With US forces already withdrawn from Afghanistan and Trump’s “America First” doctrine back in play, many in Islamabad feared renewed marginalization.
Prevailing assessments suggested that Washington would further deepen strategic ties with India, intensify pressure on Pakistan and pursue a more confrontational approach to China, a scenario that would have complicated Pakistan’s delicate regional balance.
Developments in the past year, however, have unfolded differently. Pakistan has seen an improvement in engagement with the Trump administration, while India-US relations have shown signs of strain.
The release of the 2026 Defense Strategy has further reinforced this trend, offering what officials describe as “strategic breathing room” for Islamabad.
The core of the new policy is a redefinition of the American threat perception. Unlike previous strategies, notably the 2022 Defense Strategy issued under the Biden administration, which explicitly named China as the “most consequential strategic competitor,” the 2026 document avoids portraying Beijing as an existential enemy.
The strategy makes clear that Washington does not seek confrontation with China, nor does it aim to weaken or isolate it.
It said the US does not seek to dominate, humiliate or stifle China, but “to ensure that neither China nor anyone else can dominate us or our allies”.
Instead, the US wants “a decent peace on terms that are favorable to the Americans, but that China can also accept and live under”, the plan states, adding that the US will therefore deter China by “strength, not confrontation”.
For Pakistan, this shift is particularly important. Islamabad has consistently sought to avoid being drawn into great power rivalries, particularly the US-China competition, given its close strategic partnership with Beijing.
A confrontational US stance towards China has historically put Pakistan in a difficult position, forcing it to navigate between its relationship with Washington and its longstanding ties with Beijing.
‘Diplomatic space’
A senior Pakistani official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the new US approach makes Pakistan’s foreign policy “less stressful”.
“If the US no longer seeks confrontation with China, it reduces pressure on countries like Pakistan that have strong ties with Beijing. This approach gives us greater diplomatic space,” the official said.
“For me, the US strategy is about giving time to devise ways to counter China and maintain its supremacy. Trump is playing smart. China understands the game,” said Abdul Basit, a former diplomat who served as Pakistan’s ambassador to India and Germany.
“So for now, we would not see the two countries increasing bilateral tensions to an irreversible point. It is good for Pakistan while it lasts,” he told The Express Pakinomist.
Another notable aspect of the 2026 Defense Strategy is what it does not mention. India, often highlighted in previous US policy documents, is completely absent from the 24-page strategy. The document also makes no reference to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a grouping comprising the US, India, Japan and Australia that had featured prominently in previous Indo-Pacific frameworks.
This omission has attracted attention in Islamabad. During the Biden administration, India was repeatedly described as a key defense partner and a central pillar of US strategy in Asia. The absence of India in the latest strategy suggests a recalibration of Washington’s regional priorities.
Pakistani officials see this as another positive development. An unnamed senior official said the lack of emphasis on India reduces the regional imbalance.
“The fact that India does not even figure in the defense strategy is significant. It indicates that Washington no longer sees India as central to its China policy. This is a welcome development for Pakistan,” the official said.
Analysts believe this change is directly linked to Washington’s softer framing of China. With Beijing no longer portrayed as the primary threat, India’s strategic utility, previously positioned as a counterweight, appears diminished.
Despite these positive signals, observers caution against assuming permanence. Trump’s approach to foreign policy is widely viewed as transactional and personality-driven, raising questions about the sustainability of the shift once his term ends.
Security analysts note that US strategic doctrine has historically changed with changes in administration. A future White House could return to a more traditional stance that again casts China as the central adversary, potentially reviving earlier alliance-based containment strategies.
“This strategy reflects Trump’s worldview rather than a permanent transformation of US grand strategy,” another official noted. “Pakistan should take advantage of the current environment but remain cautious on long-term assumptions.”
For now, however, the US defense strategy for 2026 appears to align with Pakistan’s long-standing preference for strategic neutrality amid great power competition. By reducing the emphasis on confrontation with China and avoiding explicit alignment with India, Washington has inadvertently made Pakistan’s regional diplomacy more manageable, at least for the duration of Trump’s term.
“It remains imperative for us to continue to nurture our strategic partnership with China. The United States is likely to undergo many changes internally and externally as the end heats up and pressure builds all around,” Ambassador Basit concluded.
New diplomatic role
Jalil Abbas Jilani, former foreign minister who also served as foreign minister under an interim government, said that while the US defense strategy announced in 2022 explicitly listed China as the primary threat, the latest strategy does not list China in the same category.
However, the new strategy continues to list China as the main competitor. It also emphasizes defending US interests in the Indo-Pacific region and deterring China through force, not confrontation.
He noted that it calls for maintaining military balance in the region to prevent China’s dominance over the United States or its allies.
He further noted that interestingly, while in the past senior US officials consistently expressed concern over the growing ties between Pakistan and China, CPEC and related issues, such concerns have subsided somewhat over the past year.
“Obviously, we have to take a lot of satisfaction from this shift. This will allow Pakistan to pursue its strategic interests vis-à-vis China while building a strong partnership with the United States.”
“Regarding China, the pressure on Pakistan appears to be easing due to a desire on the part of the Trump administration to lower tensions with China. There is also a recognition in the US that Pakistan can be a helpful partner in easing tensions not only with China but also with Iran and the Middle East as well.”
“As you know, Pakistan-US relations have been negatively affected in the past by four factors: Pakistan’s relations with China, the development of US-India relations since the mid-1990s, Afghanistan and the nuclear factor.”
He noted that the deepening Indo-US strategic partnership—marked by a growing convergence of interests vis-à-vis China, the Indo-US civil nuclear deal, logistics and intelligence-sharing frameworks such as BECA and COMCASA, India’s designation as a cybersecurity supplier, and its incorporation into groupings such as QUAD and I2U2al—has not only created a large part of Pakistan and I2U2. but also across smaller South Asian states.
However, under the Trump administration, there seems to be a slight shift away from India. The US administration has openly declared that “strategic altruism” enjoyed by India for a long time will be replaced by “strategic reciprocity”.
“Many in the US have questioned India’s credibility as a partner due to its opposition to US-sponsored resolutions against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, failure to acknowledge the US role in de-escalating tensions between Pakistan and India last May and customs issues, and Indian capabilities to act as a cyber security provider in the region,” he added.
