Bitcoin is on course for a fourth consecutive monthly decline, a rare stretch not seen since 2018 to 2019, when the market recorded six consecutive red months. There’s still a full week of trading left in January, but bitcoin is slightly lower on the month, hovering around $87,000.
The asset posted negative monthly closes in October, November and December, marking a sharp correction from its October high. From top to bottom, bitcoin is down about 36% in that period.
Notably, even the bear market of 2022, when bitcoin collapsed from $69,000 to $15,000 amid quantitative easing and crypto-specific industry failures, produced no more than three consecutive negative months. The historical comparison highlights how unusual the current streak would be if January also closes lower.
Short-term optimism
Despite the weakness in spot prices, derivatives markets suggest some preliminary optimism. According to Deribit data, options positioning points to modest upward interest at the end of the month.
Bitcoin faces an option expiration on January 30, with total open interest expiring at around $8.5 billion on Deribit. The $100,000 call option has the highest notional value, close to $900 million, indicating that a meaningful cohort of traders is positioned for a six-figure rebound. The maximum pain price for this expiration is close to $90,000. Max pain refers to the price level at which the largest number of option contracts expire worthless, which can create a gravitational pull towards that level as expiration approaches.
